3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Thursday 7/10/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which MLB player props seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Spencer Strider Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+116)

Even with Spencer Strider looking more and more like his old self, I can't get close to this number.

Two key things pop up when you look at Strider's data: his velocity is increasing, and he's throwing his slider more. Both of those are great for strikeouts, and he had 13 of them in his first start with the velo up.

If we look at a five-start sample of Strider with those two factors improving, he has a 32.2% strikeout rate. If I use that as his base rate, I'd have him projected at 7.48 strikeouts, a number that would put me on the under.

But 32.2% is higher than I'm comfortable putting his baseline given four of those five starts came at home. Truist Park has the best strikeout park factor in the league, and Sutter Health Park is just 22nd.

After making those adjustments, I have Strider projected at just 6.99 strikeouts. I'd love for him to make me look foolish because -- when healthy -- he's one of the most electric players in the sport. I just think the under is the right play.

Patrick Corbin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+106)

We're betting positive Patrick Corbin props in 2025. What a time to be alive.

Full credit to Corbin: he has been a different pitcher this year. His ERA is 4.18, and over a 16-start sample, that number is starting to look less fluky.

Strikeouts haven't been his forte, but he's not a zero there, either. He is efficient with his pitches due to a lack of walks, helping him get deep enough in games to put up respectable counting stats.

Tonight, he'll face the Los Angeles Angels, an elite matchup for a lefty. Their active roster has a 26.3% strikeout rate against southpaws and never draws walks. That combo makes them a K-prop delight.

Thanks to that matchup, I have Corbin projected at 5.19 strikeouts tonight. That's enough for me to take the plus money offered on the over and hope Corbin can keep up his solid campaign.

Logan Allen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

I'm not big on Logan Allen this year, especially not in the strikeout department. It's just a nice enough matchup where the over still looks attractive.

Allen gets the Chicago White Sox tonight, owners of the league's highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. They're much lower against righties, so it's possible the strikeouts come down as the sample expands, but a lot of their better hitters versus righties sit when they face a left-handed pitcher.

While I'm not big on Allen, he deserves credit for tinkering. He has thrown more changeups his past nine outings, and you could argue that's his best pitch. The whiff rate on that is much better than on his cutter and sinker, and his strikeout rate has inched up to 18.9% in this span.

Because Allen goes deep in games and has the plus matchup, I have him projected at 5.60 strikeouts here. Pitchers in that range for me have gone over 4.5 at a rate of 57.0%, so while -122 isn't an amazing value, it's enough for me to bite.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.