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2 Best Bets for the Wimbledon Men's Semifinals on Day 12

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2 Best Bets for the Wimbledon Men's Semifinals on Day 12

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon is nearing its conclusion.

We're into the men's semifinals, and FanDuel Sportsbook has Wimbledon odds for all the matches in the coming days.

Let's see which bets stand out on Friday.

Wimbledon Betting Picks for Day 12

Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz -5.5 Games (-120)

While it would be great to see American Taylor Fritz advance to his second career major final, I'm just not confident he can get it done versus an in-form Carlos Alcaraz.

For starters, Fritz is 0-2 in his career against Alcaraz, losing all four sets he's played. Making matters worse, Fritz is also 1-4 against Jannik Sinner and 0-10 against Novak Djokovic, meaning he's a combined 1-16 when facing the sport's top tier.

Alcaraz seems to have only grown stronger over the course of these two weeks, too. In the first round, he got a wake-up call in a surprise five-setter against 38-year-old Fabio Fognini -- who announced his retirement on Wednesday -- but since then, he's covered this spread in the last four rounds, winning by 9, 7, 6, and 10 games. In his quarterfinal match against Cameron Norrie, Alcaraz won a whopping 89% of his first-serve points and saved all five break points he faced.

Both Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings project an 83% win probability for Alcaraz. The Spaniard should cover this spread fairly easily if he wins in straight sets, and he can still do so in four sets, which he's already done twice during the tournament.

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic

Djokovic ML (+188)

In the year 2025, I'm not sure if a 38-year-old Djokovic has what it takes to best Sinner, a player who's won five of the last six matches in their head-to-head. But if ever there was a chance for Novak to do so, it's now.

With Sinner emerging as a near-invincible force on hard courts, grass is the best surface for Djokovic to defeat the world No. 1. Two of his four career wins against Sinner have come at Wimbledon (2023 and 2022), and grass is the one surface where Tennis Abstract actually ranks Djokovic ahead of Sinner in Elo rating.

In fact, the gap is wide enough for the site to project a 64% chance of victory for Novak. That will certainly get our attention at these odds.

Even if we take that with a grain of salt, the other factor is Sinner's health. The Italian injured his elbow in the fourth round -- a match Sinner was lucky to get through -- and following an MRI, he wore an arm sleeve in his quarterfinal match against Ben Shelton. While Sinner didn't seem bothered by the issue in a straight-sets win over Shelton, it's possible it becomes a bigger issue if he's forced to go four or five sets against Djokovic.

The reality is that this is arguably Djokovic's best -- and maybe last -- real shot at winning his 25th Grand Slam, which is something he himself eluded to ahead of the tournament. Novak has made six straight Wimbledon finals, and at such inviting odds, this looks like good value to see if he can do so a seventh time.


You can also check out our 2025 Wimbledon men's bracket and women's bracket, both available as free printable downloads at FanDuel Research.


Get a 30% Profit Boost Token for any wager on any Wimbledon tennis matches taking place on July 9th through July 10th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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