3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Monday 3/31/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Props

Grant Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)

It's a brutal matchup tonight for Grant Holmes as he faces the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. I just think he has the length and the strength to go over a moderate number.

Although Holmes worked in relief on Opening Day, he's fully stretched out. He threw 93 pitches all the way back on March 16th, making him one of the first pitchers to clear the 90-pitch benchmark this spring.

Holmes proved last year he could rack up strikeouts even as a starter. In his seven starts, his strikeout rate was 28.2%, actually higher than it was in relief. He finished the year at 24.8% across his 68 1/3 innings.

Even ticking down from there, I've still got Holmes projected for more than five strikeouts tonight. That makes me feel comfortable taking the over despite the matchup.

Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Emerson Hancock is debuting a sweeper this year, and it did help him get more strikeouts this spring. I think the market, though, may be overselling the gains with where this prop is at.

Across five spring starts, Hancock had a 22.6% strikeout rate. That's up from 17.8% last spring and 14.7% in the majors last year. It also wasn't against truly hideous competition; Baseball Reference's opponent quality metric had the average opposing hitter as being roughly Triple-A level.

Numbers like strikeout rate stabilize quickly, meaning we can draw more from spring training there than we can with any other stats. I do think it matters that Hancock saw an uptick. A couple things still push me toward the under.

First, Hancock maxed out at 66 pitches during the spring. He had a full session between that start and now, but we should still expect him to sit in the 85 to 90 range.

Second, Hancock's strikeouts this spring didn't necessarily come via whiffs. He had just an 8.0% swinging-strike rate there, actually lower than his 9.6% mark in the regular season last year. I'd feel better projecting a spike if that number were higher.

Add it all together, and I still have Hancock projected for just 4.1 strikeouts tonight. Pitchers in that range have gone under 4.5 at a rate of 59.6% for me, clearing the implied odds of 58.0%.

Kyle Hart Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-116)

A year in the KBO worked wonders for Kyle Hart, who debuts for the San Diego Padres tonight. Time will tell if he can carry those gains back to the big leagues, but I'm willing to buy at such a low number.

Across 26 starts with the NC Dinos, Hart had a 28.8% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging-strike rate. It was enough for him to win the Choi Dong-won Award, the KBO's equivalent of the Cy Young.

Erick Fedde won that award in 2023 with a 29.5% strikeout rate, came back to the states, and posted a 21.2% strikeout rate last year. That was up from his career mark of 17.5% before heading to the KBO. Hart had a 22.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A in 2023, so his baseline was likely a smidge higher than Fedde's before the transition, and his KBO strikeout marks were in line with Fedde's while there.

I think there's enough evidence to believe that some of Hart's success can translate back to the big leagues. Thus, over 3.5 is enticing as we may not get numbers this low for long.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.