3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Friday 7/11/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which MLB player props seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Yeah, it's a big number. But with Tarik Skubal, it's not big enough.

For the season, Skubal's strikeout rate is a whopping 33.9% with just a 3.2% walk rate. His swinging-strike rate is 17.2%, up 2.5 percentage points from when he won the Cy Young last year. That leads me to think his strikeout rate is sticky.

Tonight, he's at home against the Seattle Mariners, whose active roster has a 24.9% strikeout rate against lefties. Their overall mark on the road decreases to 22.5% because T-Mobile Park inflates strikeouts, but Comerica at least isn't a bad park for Ks.

For the season, Skubal has gotten 9-plus strikeouts in only 7 of 18 games, so you can understand why we're getting plus money here. But he has gotten there in half his starts at home, and the matchup here is nice. I have him projected around double digits, pushing me to take the over despite the massive number.

Grant Holmes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Grant Holmes has always had the length, both in terms of his pitch count but also his flow. He's now packing more punch into that pitch count, and I think he can keep it rolling.

The key for Holmes seems to be his slider. He has a 44.8% whiff rate on it, according to Baseball Savant, giving him two lethal breaking pitches (his lesser-used curveball is at 37.3%). To start the year, he was throwing the slider only 29.3% of the time across his first seven outings. Since then, that number is up to 38.4%, and the usage has topped 40% in 4 of his past 7.

In 12 starts with more sliders, Holmes' strikeout rate is 29.2%. It has come with a 3.04 ERA, as well, meaning we should expect this slider-heavy approach to continue.

There are two key downsides for Holmes: he's on the road and facing a low-strikeout St. Louis Cardinals team. We haven't gotten to see Holmes on the road much with his new approach, but he has gone over in two of four road starts in the aforementioned stretch. Even accounting for the downgrades, I have Holmes projected at 6.35 strikeouts, so I think we can expect him to keep the good vibes rolling.

Max Scherzer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+118)

This Max Scherzer market seems to be based on name value rather than the current reality, so I find the under hyper-attractive.

I have Scherzer projected to throw a season-high 85 pitches tonight. Even with that increase, his projection for me is still at just 4.78 strikeouts. A couple factors keep that number muted.

First, Scherzer just hasn't been a high-strikeout guy for a while now. He's at 22.9% this year and was at 22.6% last year. To find a loftier number, you have to go back to 2023, which was a couple different injuries ago. His swinging-strike rate this year is also just 8.5%.

Second, Sutter Health Park has proven to be a hitter-friendly venue where it's tough to get strikeouts. This gives Scherzer an additional path to the under as the A's offense could simply knock him around.

With Scherzer, I'm comfortable remaining low on him until he makes me regret it. It's possible that's tonight, but I think that risk is worth it.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.