3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 7/11/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Pirates at Twins

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-142) / Pirates Under 2.5 Runs (+142)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging an MLB-low 3.39 runs per game, including only 2.87 runs per game on the road. There is value in fading the offense at these two lines.

Pittsburgh has scored under 3.5 runs in 60.6% of total games and 70.2% of road games -- up from the 58.7% implied probability on -142 odds.

The Pirates have scored under 2.5 runs in 43.6% of total games and 46.8% of road games -- up from the 41.3% implied probability on +142 odds.

A date with Joe Ryan is the icing on the cake. Ryan enters with a 2.76 ERA, 3.17 xERA, 3.08 SIERA, and a 28.6% strikeout rate, which are marks that earned him a 2025 All-Star selection.

Pittsburgh's active roster sports a bleh .293 wOBA versus RHP, along with a truly horrific .258 wOBA and 62 wRC+ against righties on the road.

Minny's active bullpen touts an MLB-best 3.24 xFIP. They also flash a 3.08 SIERA (second-best) and allow the second-fewest home runs per nine innings (0.60). The combined efforts of Ryan and the 'pen have allowed three runs or fewer in 7 of the last 11 games, and I'm willing to bet they can do just that against an offense that is netting 1.5 runs across the last six.

Diamondbacks at Angels

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+128)

A pitching advantage could see to a multiple-run win for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.

The Los Angeles Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the bump. The lefty comes in with a 4.40 xERA, 4.96 xFIP, 4.77 SIERA, 18.7% K%, and permits 1.49 jacks per nine innings on a 48.8% fly-ball rate allowed. Anderson's issue with sluggers could be magnified in this matchup, as the Diamondbacks have churned out the second-most doubles (166), second-most triples (20), and fourth-most home runs (137) this season. The active roster has a .320 wOBA (10th) versus LHP and could destroy in this matchup.

A thriving Ryne Nelson will get the ball for Arizona. For the season, Nelson owns a 3.39 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, and 21.8% strikeout rate. He lets up just 0.73 home runs per nine innings.

Nelson has hit an elite stride across his last five starts, generating a 1.53 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 24.1% strikeout rate in that span (29 1/3 IP). The Angels' offense shouldn't prove to be too punishing, as the active roster has just a .317 wOBA (22nd) and 101 wRC+ (22nd) versus RHP.

I think the D-Backs have a bigger edge in this one than the market is suggesting, so these +128 odds are worth a look.

Rays at Red Sox

Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs (-108)

The Boston Red Sox are starting to turn it around.

The Sox have gone 10-2 since June 28th thanks to some bonkers numbers from the offense, including a .273 ISO, .605 SLG, and .418 wOBA in the span. Boston scored over 4.5 runs in 9 of those 12 games, missing by the hook twice. Can they keep it up in tonight's home game opposite Drew Rasmussen and company?

Rasmussen's 2.82 ERA is due for regression based on a 3.68 expected ERA, though it's unlikely the Red Sox will see a whole ton of him tonight anyway. Entering the season, Rasmussen was coming off his third major elbow surgery. As a result, the Rays are starting to reel in his workload. He tossed three innings on 54 pitches two starts ago before making it just two frames via 32 pitches his last time out. The results of these planned short stints haven't been awesome, as Rasmussen coughed up five earned runs and two home runs with just four strikeouts in that five-inning span.

Joe Boyle is expected to pitch in bulk past Rasmussen. He's been elite across his two appearances this season, giving up zero earned runs and punching out 14 batters across 10 innings. That said, the Rasmussen-to-Boyle handoff has been performed just once this season. The Red Sox have been dangerous with a .348 wOBA (fourth) and .460 SLG (fourth) at home versus righties this year and are as-mentioned hot as can be.

Past Rasmussen and Boyle, the Rays will rely on a bullpen that permits a league-high 1.44 home runs per nine innings and sports a 4.00 ERA (25th). Boston will allow both Wilyer Abreu and Marcelo Mayer to start thanks to the lefty-on-righty matchup, and I'm willing to bet the offense can post north of 4.5 runs against Tampa Bay's cast of characters.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.