3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Tuesday 8/26/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

This Tampa Bay Rays-Cleveland Guardians matchup is tied for the day's lowest total (7.5), and we're seeing temperatures in the 60s in Cleveland, further pointing to a low-scoring game.

Guardians left-hander Parker Messick is making just his second MLB start, but he held the Arizona Diamondbacks to one earned run over 6/23 innings in his debut last week. While that run did come in the first inning, he posted a promising 2.45 xFIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 3.8% walk rate in that start. He also flashed a 29.1% K rate and 13.2% swinging-strike rate in 20 Triple-A starts before his call-up.

This is the right matchup for Messick to continue dealing. The Rays have a poor 21.9% YRFI rate on the road this year, and their active roster ranks 29th in wRC+ (75) versus LHP.

Shane Baz has gone through a rough patch this month, but it's partially due to a difficult stretch of opponents that includes the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. Overall, he's been excellent in the first inning this season, converting a NRFI in 21 of 25 starts, which is backed by a 3.37 xFIP, 27.7% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate in that sample.

Baz's reverse splits should assist him versus a lefty-heavy Cleveland lineup, too, as he's put up a 3.45 xFIP and 28.4% strikeout rate in the split. The Guardians rank only 28th in wRC+ (91) and 24th in ISO (.153) against righties this year.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-118)

Starters Jesus Luzardo and Sean Manaea have excellent underlying numbers to begin games, giving us a potential NRFI for this contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

Manaea hasn't had the best overall results since making his 2025 debut in July, but he's still logged a scoreless first inning in five of his seven outings. This included a stellar 2.96 xFIP and 33.3% strikeout rate the first time through the order, as most of the damage he's allowed has come deeper in games.

The Phillies have a dangerous offense, but they possess a far less scary 26.9% YRFI rate when they're away from Citizens Bank Park.

Luzardo has produced a NRFI in 19 of 26 starts while putting up a 2.47 xFIP, 29.6% strikeout rate, and 3.7% walk rate in the first inning. Even if we expand out to the first time through the order, the left-hander maintains a 2.58 xFIP, 32.1% K rate, and 5.6% BB rate.

While Luzardo will face a predominantly right-handed lineup, the Mets have a been a neutral matchup for southpaws this season (100 wRC+).

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are both in the bottom third in YRFI rate, and tonight's starters have shown enough to think we can get a scoreless opening frame. The Pirates ranks 23rd in YRFI rate (26.5%) while St. Louis is 29th (23.5%). Pittsburgh's YRFI drops even lower when they're on the road (23.8%).

Despite mediocre overall results, Andre Pallante has managed a NRFI in 19 of 25 starts, owning a 66.7% ground-ball rate in the first inning and 63.7% clip the first time through the order. Most of his issues have come in later innings, so he should be able to keep the Pirates off the board early in this one.

Mitch Keller hasn't allowed a run in 19 of 26 first innings. His best asset has been a low barrel rate (6.8%), which has helped him minimize dingers (0.87 HR/9). The Cardinals have been particularly brutal in the first inning over the last 30 days, posting a .216 wOBA and .033 ISO.

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