3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Tuesday 7/8/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-132)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals are tied for averaging the fewest runs per game (3.40) this season, so it isn't surprising that they typically haven't been imposing threats in the first inning, either. Kansas City is 20th in first-inning runs per game (0.45) while Pittsburgh is 29th (0.35). This should help starters Mitch Keller and Seth Lugo work through the opening inning unscathed.

Lugo has been a NRFI machine in 2025, recording a scoreless first inning in 14 of 16 starts. While his underlying numbers pretty universally point to his 2.65 ERA regressing, he's put up a solid 3.73 xFIP, 22.9% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate the first time through the order. He's logged six straight first innings without allowing a run, and the Pirates are a great matchup to keep that going.

Keller has posted a zero on the scoreboard in 13 of 18 first innings, and while he lacks a flashy strikeout rate (18.9%), he's in the 70th percentile or better in walk rate (5.8%), barrel rate (6.7%), and ground-ball rate (46.7%).

The Royals project to have right-handed batters in four of the first five batting slots, which should further help Keller, as he sees improved marks in same-handed matchups. In that split, he's produced a 3.47 xFIP, 22.4% K rate, 4.2% BB rate, and 50.7% GB rate.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-118)

This has the potential to be a pitchers' duel between Nathan Eovaldi and Jose Soriano, setting up an inviting spot for a NRFI between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels.

Soriano has managed a NRFI in 14 of 18 starts, and what he lacks in strikeout rate (20.5%) is made up for with an elite ground-ball rate (66.9%) that cracks the 99th percentile. All those grounders have led to him giving up only four home runs all season. He'll benefit from a plus matchup against the Rangers, a team that's 23rd in YRFI rate (26.4%) and 22nd in first-inning runs per game (0.44).

Considering Eovaldi's 1.75 ERA, it isn't surprising he's been pretty lights out in the first inning, producing a NRFI in 12 of 14 starts. That ERA might not be sustainable, but that first-inning success should be, as he's got a 2.66 xFIP, 28.6% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate, and 51.2% ground-ball rate the first time through the order.

Although the Angels have actually been a tough opponent in the first inning (36.7% YRFI rate), Eovaldi's strong numbers to begin games should give us confidence that he can come through regardless of the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-111)

The arms in this Philadelphia Phillies-San Francisco Giants matchup will benefit from both a pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and temperatures that could dip below 60 degrees.

Lefty Robbie Ray hasn't given up an earned run in the first inning in 15 of 18 starts and is on a nine-game streak without allowing one. Home runs haven't been an issue for Ray (1.01 HR/9) compared to years past, too, and even if he eventually regresses, these run-suppressing conditions should give him an assist tonight. Further, Ray has posted a fantastic 3.00 xERA, mostly backing his 2.68 ERA thus far.

Despite a tough matchup against Philadelphia, Ray's track record and home venue should have us on his side.

Right-hander Taijuan Walker has been pitching out of the bullpen of late, but he'll get the nod tonight and produced a NRFI in six of eight starts early on. He isn't expected to log more than four innings, so he shouldn't be holding back to begin this game. Overall, Walker's put up a solid 3.75 xERA that's the result of limiting hard hits (38.7% rate) and barrels (5.4% rate).

Rafael Devers has started to come alive for the Giants, but this is still a team that's only 19th in YRFI rate (28.3%) and 20th in first-inning runs per game (0.45), so this shouldn't be a bad spot for Walker.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.