3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 7/8/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

Reds Under 4.5 Runs (-120)

The Miami Marlins recently got a boost to their starting rotation with Eury Perez returning from Tommy John surgery. He did not record a start last season, but Perez logged a 3.15 ERA and 3.94 SIERA in 2023 over 19 starts.

Miami's young starter has shown rust over five starts this season, carrying a 4.50 ERA and 4.71 SIERA. However, he has still performed well in some areas -- including opponents logging only 0.41 home runs per nine innings against Perez. This is useful against the Cincinnati Reds, who is in the top 16 of SLG, isolated power, and home run rate.

Cincy has already been struggling to produce runs with a measly 1.0 runs per game over the previous three. Similar to 2023, Perez's top three pitches are a four-seam fastball (52.1%), slider (24.1%), and curveball (14.1%). The Reds sporting the ninth-fewest runs above average against sliders is another bolstering point for a strong Perez outing.

In his previous start, Perez had his strongest performance of the season by giving up one hit and no earned runs in six innings of work. Boosted by recent struggles to drive in runs, I'll gladly take the under for the Redlegs' total.

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins

Under 9 Total Runs (-104)

Ahead of Tuesday's meeting between the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins, the over looks to be the trendy pick with over nine runs carrying a -118 line. Additionally, the Cubs have logged 9.3 runs per game over the last three games while the Twins have posted 5.0 runs per contest during the same span. Chicago leading MLB with 5.5 runs per game is the main concern for the over hitting. However, I like Minnesota's starter for Tuesday.

Simeon Woods Richardson has been on a roll over his previous four starts by posting a 1.71 ERA. He has given up 1.28 home runs per nine innings, which is above the league average of 1.05. However, Woods Richardson has given up only a 9.7% home run-to-fly ball rate. He's enjoyed regression over his last five starts by giving up only one big fly during the span. This was over 25.2 innings pitching, which is only 0.36 home runs allowed per nine innings. Woods Richardson is approaching his 1.08 home runs allowed per nine innings from a season ago.

This carries a ton of weight for tonight with the Cubs ranking in the top three of SLG, isolated power, and home run percentage. Furthermore, Woods Richardson utilizes a four-seam fastball most of the time with a 45.8% usage rate. Chicago touts the 14th-most runs above average against the pitch -- which is pretty favorable considering where this batting order ranks in most categories.

The Cubs are putting Shota Imanaga on the bump, and he certainly has the numbers to limit the Twins. He carries a 2.78 ERA for the season and leans on a four-seamer (50.4%) and splitter (35.3%). Minnesota has the 15th-fewest runs above average against four-seam fastballs and the 6th-fewest when facing splitters.

I trust Imanaga's consistent production, and this paired with a rising Woods Richardson points to the under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

Under 4.5 First 5 Innings Total Runs (-146)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals make up two of the league's bottom three for runs per game, immediately turning us to nearly any under line. Two thriving starters on the rubber only suggest even fewer runs, helping explain the -115 line for under eight runs.

Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pirates, and he boasts a 1.88 ERA over his last four and 0.73 ERA over his previous two outings. Even his advanced stats are impressive with xFIPs of 3.08 or lower in three of the previous four appearances. Kansas City struggles against his most-used pitches, touting the 6th-fewest runs above against four-seam fastballs and sliders while carrying the 10th-lowest mark for sinkers. Another strong start looks likely.

Seth Lugo of the Royals has been even better of recent by posting a 1.29 ERA in his last six starts. He's allowed only three earned runs over his previous five. Lugo features a wide variety of pitches, including a four-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, cutter, and changeup. The Pirates are in the bottom six of runs above average against his top three tools and have the lowest mark against his top two.

Each starter in this matchup is red-hot, and facing batting orders that struggle against their top pitches points to even more success. Don't expect much action over the first five innings with these hurlers likely dominating.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.