3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Friday 6/20/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

Starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Shane Baz have both been fantastic in the first inning this season. Each one has allowed first-inning runs just once all year, meaning the two have combined to pitch a scoreless opening frame in 26 of 28 starts. That alone should make us pretty confident in a NRFI between the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays.

Baz will have to contend with a Detroit team that's just outside the top 10 in YRFI rate (31.6%) and has been one of MLB's better overall offenses in 2025. However, Baz is expected to face lefties in three of the first four spots in the Tigers' order, and that's actually a positive for the right-hander, as his strikeout rate jumps to 25.5% versus lefties. Further, Baz has backed his strong first-inning results through solid marks the first time through the order behind a 3.73 xFIP, 22.2% K rate, 5.6% BB rate, and 50.0% GB rate.

Meanwhile, Flaherty has been especially lethal the first time through the order, boasting a 2.75 xFIP, 35.7% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate. Tampa Bay's lineup is plenty capable, but they haven't found consistency in the first inning, sitting tied for 26th in YRFI rate (24.0%) and 23rd in first-inning runs per game (0.40).

We should expect these two starters to continue finding early success, which should lead us to a NRFI tonight.

Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

On a day with higher totals and temperatures across the nation, this matchup definitely stands out for a lower-scoring game. This Kansas City Royals-San Diego Padres battle is tied for the slate's lowest total (7.5) with cool temperatures in the mid-to-low 60s.

Nick Pivetta will take the mound for San Diego, and he's rocking a 3.15 xFIP, 31.0% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate the first time through the order. Although he's had a few rocky starts lately, he's still given up first-inning runs in only 3 of 14 starts. The home runs have begun to creep up for Pivetta, but that isn't much of a worry versus a Kansas City lineup that's tied for the third-fewest first-inning home runs (7) and is in the bottom half in both YRFI rate (28.0%) and first-inning runs per game (0.43).

On the other hand, Michael Lorenzen will have a more difficult task in silencing San Diego's bats, as the Padres are inside the top 10 in YRFI rate (33.8%) and first-inning runs per game (0.61). Lorenzen has been getting the job done to begin games, though, allowing first-inning runs in 2 of 14 outings. Despite mediocre production this year, the righty has a decent 4.13 xERA, and he's gotten his best results the first time through the order with a 4.05 xFIP.

Low temperatures should help keep the ball in the park, leading us to a NRFI out west.

Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

Less than a week after the Boston Red Sox turned heads by trading Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants, the two teams will face off on Friday. While that should be an intriguing storyline through the weekend, our interest in this matchup lies in it being the other game with a 7.5 total. Temperatures will drop below 60 degrees by first pitch, and windy conditions will be suppressed at Oracle Park -- as shown by the modest total.

Right-hander Hayden Birdsong recently moved from the bullpen to the Giants' rotation, and early returns have been positive. Over five starts, he's put up a 3.70 xFIP and 24.3% strikeout rate, and that's been even better the first time through the order (2.90 xFIP and 33.3% K rate). He's also a perfect five-for-five in NRFIs. Boston's lineup has been above average in the opening inning, but the loss of Devers naturally makes the top of their order far less scary going forward.

Noted New York Yankees hater Hunter Dobbins will start for the Red Sox, and despite a lack of overpowering stuff, he's managed a 3.86 xERA and 3.88 SIERA. Most notably, his walk rate is in the 93rd percentile (4.8%), and he's above average in both barrel rate (6.9%) and ground-ball rate (46.2%). He's had a couple of first-inning hiccups lately but has logged a NRFI in six of his nine starts.

Of course, Devers will have the opposite effect of boosting the Giants' lineup. The good news for Dobbins is that they have a ways to climb as a team that's tied for 24th in YRFI (25.3%), which is backed by ranking 27th in first-inning wRC+ (88) and 24th in first-inning ISO (.134).

While we don't have elite pitching to begin this game, the pitcher-friendly conditions should be enough to assist in reaching a NRFI.

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