2 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 6/20/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals -1.5 (+146)

Backing teams to win by 2+ runs while starting a pitcher with a 4.83 ERA might seem rather risky, but these plus odds should pique our interest. That's because St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante has some positive signs underneath that ugly ERA.

Despite his mixed results, Pallante still owns an elite 63.8% ground-ball rate that ranks second among qualified starters this season. That's led to him allowing a minuscule 19.1% fly-ball rate, yet he's given up a career-high 1.30 HR/9. His 23.4% HR/FB rate is by far the highest among qualified starters and is due for a significant course correction. After all, this is someone who has given up just 0.82 HR/9 over a career that dates back to 2022.

Signs of positive regression also come from solid marks in xFIP (3.60) and SIERA (3.79), as well.

Furthermore, even if Pallante isn't perfect, the Cardinals' hitters should provide ample run support against Cincinnati Reds righty Brady Singer. Over 14 starts, Singer has recorded a lackluster 4.88 xERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate. And in his case, we should see his 1.08 HR/9 go up, as that low K rate has come alongside a 34.7% ground-ball rate and 11.2% barrel rate.

Both offenses are in the middle of the pack versus RHP, so this boils down to a pitching matchup that could actually favor St. Louis despite the surface numbers. With that in mind, it's worth taking a chance on the Cardinals run line at these odds.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

Astros -1.5 (+100)

It first glance, this looks like a pitchers' duel between Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi, and that's backed by a fairly low 8.0-run total for this Houston Astros-Los Angeles Angels contest. However, a deeper look shows that Kikuchi's 3.05 ERA is on shaky ground.

That's because the veteran southpaw has rather unremarkable metrics across the board. That ERA doesn't hold up when compared to Kikuchi's xERA (4.66) or SIERA (4.57), and meh marks in strikeout rate (21.7%) and walk rate (12.0%) further add pessimism. It's not like he's avoiding loud contact, either, as his 10.5% barrel rate is in the 21st percentile.

Houston just so happens to be a dangerous team for left-handers, too. They project to have an entire lineup of right-handed batters, and against lefties, their active roster ranks first in wRC+ (134), first in ISO (.215), and second in strikeout rate (18.4%).

As for Brown, perhaps he won't maintain his 1.88 ERA all year -- but don't expect it to rise too much. The 26-year-old has produced a 2.94 xERA, 2.85 SIERA, 32.6% strikeout rate, and 46.9% ground-ball rate in 2025. Being in the 94th percentile for hard-hit rate allowed (31.3%) sure doesn't hurt, too.

If that wasn't enough, the Angels should be a plus matchup for Brown, as their active roster is among the five worst versus RHP in both wRC+ (92) and K rate (24.2%).

Throw in an Astros bullpen that's been among the league's best this year, and we should have confidence in backing the Astros here at even money.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.