3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 4/30/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+390)

PNC Park isn't typically a venue we want to target for dingers, but the Chicago Cubs are one of the hottest teams in baseball to begin the season, and they just swatted four homers against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday. With Carmen Mlodzinski set to make his sixth start of the campaign for the Pirates on Wednesday, Kyle Tucker is someone who can wreak havoc at the plate.

Against right-handed pitching this year, Tucker is sporting an impressive .414 wOBA, 166 wRC+, .263 ISO, 12.2% strikeout rate, and 49.3% fly-ball rate. Tucker is also in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.621), 73rd percentile in average exit velocity (91.2 MPH), 85th percentile in barrel rate (15.5%), and 95th percentile in launch angle sweet-spot rate (44.3%).

While Mlodzinski is posting a formidable 0.82 HR/9, he has the 24th-worst SLG (.495) among pitchers who have seen 50-plus balls put in play against them, and Tucker owns a .296 ISO or better against Mlodzinski's three primary pitches versus left-handed hitters (four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup) since the start of last season.

Along with Mlodzinski being a mediocre pitcher, the Pirates' bullpen is logging the 10th-worst HR/9 (1.03), 12th-worst barrel rate (8.8%), and 6th-worst flyball rate (40.5%).

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Carlos Carrasco is a right-handed hurler who typically has reverse splits, but Gunnar Henderson is producing good enough power metrics to back him to hit a long ball.

Henderson is sitting in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity (95.8 MPH), 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (58.1%), and 81st percentile in squared-up rate (29.5%). On top of that, Camden Yards has the fourth-best home run park factor for left-handed batters over the past three years.

On the other hand, Carrasco resides in the 21st percentile in xERA (5.12), 16th percentile in average exit velocity (91.4 MPH), 13th percentile in strikeout rate (15.6%), 20th percentile in barrel rate (12.0%), and 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate (44.6%). Of the pitchers with 20-plus innings under their belt to begin the 2025 campaign, Carrasco is notching the 16th-worst HR/9 (1.75) and 31st-worst contact rate (81.4%).

Since the start of last season, Henderson is recording a .250 ISO or better against two of Carrasco's three primary pitches versus left-handed batters (four-seam fastball and slider). Although pitcher-versus-batter data doesn't tell the entire story, Henderson is also 3-for-5 with a home run and no strikeouts in five career plate appearances against Carrasco.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Bryce Harper has been pretty unlucky to begin the season, evidenced by his AVG (.231) and xBA (.264) along with his SLG (.417) and xSLG (.495). Nevertheless, Harper still has a solid 5 homers across his first 131 plate appearances, and he can add to that total on Wednesday against Jake Irvin and the bullpen of the Washington Nationals.

Irvin has gotten lucky himself as the right-handed starter is registering the 18th-biggest difference (-0.104) between his SLG (.393) and xSLG (.497), so it's only a matter of time before he begins serving up dingers. In addition to Washington's bullpen tallying the 10th-lowest strikeout rate (21.0%), they are accruing the 8th-worst HR/9 (1.12), 2nd-worst HR/FB rate (13.0%), and 12th-worst hard-hit rate (39.7%).

As for Harper, the slugging lefty is still in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity (91.4 MPH), 70th percentile in barrel rate (12.0%), and 76th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.2%) despite his unlucky results so far. Nationals Park is another favorable venue for left-handed hitters, with the ballpark having the 12th-best home run park factor across the last three seasons.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.