3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 8/5/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Blake Perkins to Hit a Home Run (+900)

Usually, betting markets are at least a little willing to buy into successful small samples like Blake Perkins's against southpaws.

Perkins has only 18 MLB plate appearances (PAs) against them this year, but he's launched two homers with a 1.319 OPS, .500 ISO, 46.2% flyball rate, and 61.5% (!) hard-hit rate. The switch-hitter homered in 12.8% of PAs against lefties last year, as well.

Jackson Chourio's injury could pave the way for him to be moved up the order. He hit sixth for the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, and Joey Wentz seems like a good matchup for him.

Wentz has contact issues, allowing a flyball (42.6%) and barrel (9.2%) rate significantly than 4.38 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) would suggest. That metric just likes his swinging-strike rate (11.2% SwSt), but Perkins has fanned only 16.7% of the time against lefties.

While this is definitely a longshot, the Atlanta Braves' bullpen has also coughed up 1.33 HR/9 (seventh-most in MLB) over the past 30 days. They could come up clutch for us, too.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+360)

It's rare to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. so distant for a bomb relative to the top options on his squad, but that's how well Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho have been swinging it.

Still, Vladdy is making productive trips to the plate against righties in the past month. His .206 ISO, 37.3% flyball rate, and 37.3% hard-hit rate over the last 80 PAs seem like a guy hitting bombs with regularity, yet only three balls have left the yard in this time.

A trip to Coors Field opposite Anthony Molina should help. Molina has coughed up 3.12 HR/9 in a sub-10-inning sample in the majors this year, but he's also had a 5.83 xFIP in Triple-A. It's also kind of hard to understate how terrible the Colorado Rockies' bullpen has been, permitting 1.70 HR/9 in relief over the past 30 days.

I can't see Barger and Varsho at +285 or shorter and think there's not value on this line when the Toronto Blue Jays' first baseman isn't slumping. He's just not scorching, but an upward trajectory could start this evening.

Lars Nootbaar to Hit a Home Run (+400)

As the sample grows on Emmet Sheehan, the more and more I'm looking to fade him in this market.

Sheehan's stuff (13.3% SwSt) is awesome. The problem? When batters connect, it's been in the air (50.0% flyball rate) with force (41.2% hard-hit rate). The homers (0.36 HR/9) haven't come yet, but it feels like a matter of time when his homer-to-flyball ratio (2.9%) is so far below the league average (11.0%) despite playing in MLB's most homer-friendly park this season.

The St. Louis Cardinals' team total tonight isn't very big tonight, though. That's because not many hitters are performing well against righties in their order, but Lars Nootbaar is an exception. Nootbaar has an .843 OPS, .266 ISO, 53.3% flyball rate, and 46.7% hard-hit rate over his 22 PAs since returning from injury.

Nootbaar has homered in 38.5% of his PAs against righties overall this season, so it's a stunner to not even see him shortest St. Louis option for a round-tripper. He's a great bet on Dinger Tuesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.