3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 5/6/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook has a special offer for users betting a "To Hit a Home Run" wager today!

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+480)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have an implied team total right around six runs tonight, the result of a stellar matchup against Miami Marlins righty Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill has been roughed up each of the past two seasons, and this 2025 campaign is looking like more of the same. He enters Tuesday with a 6.74 xERA, 13.1% strikeout rate, and 39.4% ground-ball rate -- all while giving up a 12.6% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit rate. With numbers like that, it isn't surprising he's allowed 1.69 HR/9.

Will Smith is off to a solid start at the plate, sitting in the 80th percentile or better in xISO, xSLG, and barrel rate. He's been particularly dialed in of late, logging a barrel and multiple hard hits in four of his last five starts. While it hasn't led to any home runs over this span, more should be on the way if he keeps making this kind of loud contact.

Facing a pitcher who's struggling across the board, Smith looks like an appealing choice at these odds. As an added bonus, Miami's active bullpen has a league-worst 4.78 xFIP, as well.

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+420)

James Wood hasn't disappointed in his sophomore campaign for the Washington Nationals, most notably rocking some flashy power numbers. Among qualified hitters, Wood is inside MLB's top 20 in ISO (.273) and is tied with several players for 7th in home runs (9).

Statcast backs it all up, too, as the 22-year-old boasts a 16.3% barrel rate (91st percentile) and 52.2% hard-hit rate (90th percentile).

We shouldn't be shocked if he reaches double-digit bombs in a plus matchup against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Ben Lively, who is starting the second game of today's Nationals-Guardians doubleheader.

Although Lively has gotten respectable results over seven starts, he's had a tough time versus left-handed batters, posting a 5.68 xFIP and 15.3% K rate. Four of the five home runs he's allowed have come in that split, too.

This isn't a new development, either. Dating back to the start of 2023, Lively owns a 5.00 xFIP and 18.2% K rate versus lefty sticks while giving up 2.0 HR/9 off a 44.1% fly-ball rate.

This looks like a near-perfect spot for Wood to add another dinger to his 2025 resume.

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+450)

While Kauffman Stadium might not be the best venue for home runs, that's easier to overlook with right-hander Sean Burke on the mound for the Chicago White Sox.

That's because Burke has been a launching pad for dingers this season (1.91 HR/9), and it doesn't look like a fluke considering his xERA (7.52), barrel rate (15.2%), strikeout rate (17.0%), and ground-ball rate (35.2%). He's allowed at least one home run in five of his seven games.

Given the above, this looks like a great opportunity for Kansas City Royals slugger Salvador Perez to knock one out.

Although Perez has been stuck at 2 home runs for a while now, he continues to own the team's best overall Statcast power metrics, which includes a 15.2% barrel rate (86th percentile) and .593 xSLG (94th percentile). Further, his -2.2 HR-xHR is one of the league's biggest gaps, suggesting he's due for a major course correction.

The White Sox bullpen could also assist Perez as it collectively has the third-worst xFIP (4.32) and HR/9 (1.33) among active rosters.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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