3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 9/4/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Tampa Bay Rays are home at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which has the third-highest home run park factor this season, and opposing starter Logan Allen is someone we can attack for dingers.

Allen is lights out in same-handed matchups, but that's decidedly not the case against righties. In the split, he's posted a 5.20 xFIP, 15.9% strikeout rate, and 39.8% ground-ball rate. Overall, while he's done a solid job of restricting hard contact, he's still allowed a 9.6% barrel rate (27th percentile).

Although Junior Caminero is the obvious candidate to knock one out, he has fairly short +250 odds to hit a home run. With that in mind, there might be more value in backing teammate Yandy Diaz.

Diaz is roughly average in barrel rate, but he shines just about everywhere else, rocking a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity (94th percentile), 52.3% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile), and 14.4% strikeout rate (87th percentile). That's helped him reach 22 dingers this season, and 17 of those have come at home.

Most notably, Diaz has shown more power versus lefties for several years now. Dating back to the start of 2022, he's produced a .237 ISO and 44.0% FanGraphs hard-hit rate in the split (.263 ISO and 43.7% hard-hit rate in 2025).

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Right-hander Kyle Hendricks still does a good job of suppressing hard contact, but with his strikeout rate dwindling in recent seasons, the home runs have really started to pile up. Since his K rate started to decline in 2021, Hendricks has allowed 1.54, 1.60, 0.85, 1.45, and 1.39 HR/9 over the last five campaigns. It's pretty clear which of those is the outlier.

In 2025, it's right-handed batters doing the brunt of the damage, crushing Hendricks for 2.06 HR/9 off a 43.9% fly-ball rate. His strikeout rate is an abysmal 14.5% in the split, as well.

While Bobby Witt Jr. hasn't quite matched his stellar 2024 season, it's still easy to get on board with his 93.4 MPH average exit velocity (95th percentile) and 115.7 MPH maximum exit velocity (96th percentile). At 20 home runs, he'll likely come short of his 32 last year, but we shouldn't rule out a strong finish.

A plus matchup against Hendricks is the perfect opportunity for Witt to hit his first dinger in September.

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Sticking with the same game, lefty Noah Cameron is the other starting pitcher in this matchup, and while he's not serving up bombs at the level of Hendricks, his underlying numbers show he's vulnerable against righties.

Against that handedness, Cameron has a modest 4.41 xFIP, 18.6% strikeout rate, and 40.9% ground-ball rate. He's coughed up four home runs to righty sticks over his last three starts, which is another promising sign for us.

Jo Adell has been the Los Angeles Angels' most dangerous power hitter with a team-high 33 homers in 2025. That's been backed by reaching the 95th percentile or better in barrel rate, maximum exit velocity, xSLG, and xISO.

Adding to Adell's appeal is the fact he's mashed lefties dating back to last season with a massive .343 ISO in the split.

Enter a chance to win two World Series tickets and travel accommodations! Step up to the plate and take a short quiz on responsible betting to join the sweepstakes. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.