3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 7/10/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Bryan Woo is certainly a talented pitcher who carries a formidable 3.19 xERA and 0.96 WHIP, but he's also registering career-worst marks in flyball rate (42.7%), hard-hit rate (38.0%), and barrel rate (9.1%). Along with Woo taking the mound away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, he's giving up a 1.71 HR/9 and 52.9% flyball rate to left-handed hitters (compared to a 0.66 HR/9 and 31.7% flyball rate to right-handed hitters).

When factoring Woo's splits versus lefties, Jazz Chisholm stands out, especially with how he's been hitting the baseball recently. Across the last 14 days, Chisholm is posting the 15th-best average exit velocity (94.2 MPH), best barrel rate (37.5%), and 2nd-highest flyball rate (67.7%).

On the season, Jazz is logging an impressive .409 wOBA, 166 wRC+, .350 ISO, and 54.5% flyball rate against right-handed hurlers, and those metrics get bumped up to a .463 wOBA, 204 wRC+, .451 ISO, and 58.5% flyball rate when he faces a righty at Yankee Stadium.

Just to wrap up Chisholm's case to hit a homer, he also boasts a .255 ISO or better, 63.9% hard-hit rate or better, and 19.4% barrel rate or better versus Woo's two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and sinker) against left-handed batters since the start of the 2025 campaign.

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+430)

There could be quite a few dingers hit in Thursday's clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, especially with Walker Buehler on the mound for Boston. Through his first 15 starts and 72.0 innings pitched this year, Buehler ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA (5.12), 24th percentile in strikeout rate (18.5%), and 29th percentile in barrel rate (9.6%) while carrying a 1.88 HR/9 or worse for the second consecutive season.

In the power department, Buehler is showing reverse splits, coughing up a 2.53 HR/9 and 37.1% flyball rate to righties (compared to a 1.35 HR/9 and 32.1% flyball rate to lefties). Given Buehler's numbers against right-handed hitters, Junior Caminero is in play to hit his 23rd long ball of the season on Thursday.

Against right-handed pitching this year, Caminero has tallied a formidable .350 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and .263 ISO. On top of that, Caminero is recording a .275 ISO or better, 47.5% hard-hit rate or better, and 15.0% barrel rate or better against three of Buehler's four primary pitches (slider, four-seam fastball, and sinker) versus righties since the start of this season.

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+390)

With Miles Mikolas coughing up at least one homer in six straight starts and coming off an outing where he allowed a whopping six dingers, it's tough not to take someone from the Washington Nationals on Thursday. Mikolas is permitting a .365 wOBA, 1.97 HR/9, and 50.9% flyball rate to left-handed batters (compared to a .315 wOBA, 1.08 HR/9, and 39.1% flyball rate to right-handed batters), paving the way for James Wood to continue tearing the cover off the baseball before the All-Star break begins.

Wood is currently sporting a .399 wOBA, 160 wRC+, and .265 ISO versus right-handed hurlers in 2025, and those metrics balloon to a .416 wOBA, 171 wRC+, and .276 ISO when he's playing on the road. Even though Wood is getting the Barry Bonds treatment this season, Mikolas' 89th-percentile walk rate (5.3%) and the fact that the Nationals are the visiting team should give Wood ample chances to send one over the fence.

Besides Wood owning a .375 ISO, 80.9% hard-hit rate, and 31.9% barrel rate versus a four-seam fastball from a right-handed pitcher this year, 7 of Mikolas' 10 home runs given up to lefties in 2025 have come by way of the four-seam fastball -- a pitch he throws 32.3% of the time to lefties. Considering that Mikolas resides in the 10th percentile in xERA (5.25), 5th percentile in barrel rate (12.6%), and 17th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.9%), these are solid odds for a player with the seventh-most homers (24), ninth-best barrel rate (18.3%), and sixth-best hard-hit rate (56.3%) in the league.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.