3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/8/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Wilyer Abreu To Hit A Home Run (+480)

Wilyer Abreu put the Boston Red Sox on his back last night, smashing two home runs en route to a 6-4 victory over the Texas Rangers. Boston and Texas wrap up a three-game series this afternoon, and we can back the hot hand without paying any premium.

The right-handed Jack Leiter will get the ball for the Rangers. He got attacked for six earned runs and two home runs his last time out. Since making his MLB debut in 2024, Leiter has given up a .478 SLG, 42.4% fly-ball rate, and 1.63 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters.

He's already seen Boston's offense this season and will now have to handle them at Fenway.

For Abreu's part, he's raked to the tune of a .305 BA, .314 ISO, 1.026 OPS, 179 wRC+, and 57.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. He's generating a mammoth 25.8% barrel rate, 74.2% fly-ball rate, and .421 ISO across the last two weeks (43 plate appearances).

He's hitting 0.3 home runs per four at-bats this season, but these +480 odds imply only a 17.2% probability.

Max Kepler To Hit A Home Run (+500)

Moving on to the night slate, let's check out what Max Kepler has been doing with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Kepler hit only eight home runs through 105 games with Minnesota last season. However, he's averaging 24.3 home runs per a full 162-game season in his career and is starting to show signs of that.

Since April 26th, he is producing a 21.4% barrel rate, 67.9% fly-ball rate, and .382 ISO with only an 18.4% K% and 5.3% BB%. That's helped him smash four home runs in eight games started in that span.

Tonight, he draws an ideal matchup against the right-handed Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot has surrendered a .257 ISO, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 1.86 home runs per nine innings to lefties this season.

With the platoon advantage and momentum on his side, Kepler could make good on this matchup.

Freddie Freeman To Hit A Home Run (+450)

Fifteen years removed from his MLB debut, Freddie Freeman is still wreaking havoc on the league.

Among players who have logged at least 100 plate appearances this season, Freeman ranks second in batting average (.362), ISO (.351), and slugging percentage (.713), as well as third in wRC+ (212).

He's launched eight home runs in 26 games, yet we can find his home run prop at +450 odds even with a friendly matchup set for tonight.

Brandon Pfaadt will take the bump, and he's given up 1.98 home runs per nine innings (6 through 27 1/3 IP) to lefties this season.

In his career, lefties have burned him for a .208 ISO and 1.63 home runs per nine innings. On top of that, he's due for regression, as his 3.79 ERA doesn't quite line up with his 5.31 xERA.

Freeman has torched northpaws with a .400 BA, .414 ISO, .814 SLG, and 43.4% fly-ball rate this season. It's not hard for me to talk myself into Freeman at this number.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.