3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 5/15/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Following a slow start to the season, Gunnar Henderson has been heating up at the plate recently, totaling four multi-hit outings, three homers, and seven RBIs over his last five contests. Over the last week of action, Henderson is generating the second-best average exit velocity (99.7 MPH) and third-best hard-hit rate (73.7%), and he'll face a pitcher (Chris Paddack) who is susceptible to the long ball on Thursday.

Across his first 8 starts and 39.2 innings pitched in 2025, Paddack is sitting in the 31st percentile in xERA (4.47), 26th percentile in average exit velocity (90.5 MPH), 35th percentile in barrel rate (9.7%), and 38th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.7%). Even though Paddack is posting a 1.69 HR/9 to righties, he's still registering a 1.47 HR/9, 58.9% flyball rate, and just a 13.2% strikeout rate versus lefties.

Against right-handed pitching this season, Henderson is sporting an elite .431 wOBA, 185 wRC+, and .292 ISO. With winds blowing slightly to right field at Camden Yards -- which has the second-best home run park factor for left-handed bats over the last three years -- Henderson has a decent chance to add another home run to his season total on Thursday.

Daulton Varsho to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled to generate power out of their lineup this season, but they've added a bit more pop since Daulton Varsho returned from injury. Since making his season debut on April 29, Varsho is logging the 13th-best average exit velocity (95.2 MPH) and 7th-best barrel rate (24.0%) among batters with 40-plus plate appearances during that span.

Varsho has also tallied the sixth-highest flyball rate (64.0%) since making his return, which has helped him accrue five homers already this season. Despite Varsho having an issue with striking out (37.8% K rate to begin the year), those concerns should be mitigated against Zack Littell and the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Along with Littell residing in the 14th percentile in strikeout rate (16.0%), he is in the 22nd percentile in xERA (4.79), 26th percentile in average exit velocity (90.5 MPH), 9th percentile in barrel rate (12.8%), and 19th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.9%). Once Littell exits Thursday's contest, Varsho will get to square off against a Tampa Bay bullpen that has the fifth-worst HR/9 (1.24), seventh-worst barrel rate (9.1%), and second-worst hard-hit rate (44.9%).

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Although it's still fairly early in the season, Osvaldo Bido is recording the 17th-worst HR/9 (2.21) and 3rd-highest flyball rate (58.6%) versus left-handed hitters, which is a recipe for disaster against Freddie Freeman and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Freeman is currently producing a stellar .491 wOBA, 220 wRC+, and .356 ISO when facing right-handed pitching (compared to a .402 wOBA, 160 wRC+, and .276 ISO when facing left-handed pitching).

Besides his power metrics against lefties, Bido has been underwhelming to begin the campaign, residing in the 24th percentile in xERA (4.74), 26th percentile in average exit velocity (90.5%), 6th percentile in strikeout rate (14.5%), and 18th percentile in barrel rate (11.3%). Bido is also in the ninth percentile in groundball rate (31.2%), so we should expect Freeman to have ample opportunities to put the ball in the air.

When taking a glance at Bido's pitch mix, Freeman is notching a .287 ISO or better against two of Bido's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and slider) versus left-handed batters. There will seemingly be a slight breeze out to right field at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, which should only help Freeman's case to send one into the seats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.