3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Opening Day

NOTE: This piece is from the Opening Day slate. Click here to see Friday's best MLB home run prop bets.

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Colton Cowser to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Admittedly, Opening Day is a tricky slate to predict home runs.

Not only do we get a slew of shutdown aces taking the mound, but this is a time of year where we still have cooler temperatures in most areas, further hindering the home run ball.

The good news? The combination of elite pitchers and/or cold weather matchups can make it easy to narrow down our potential targets. Among the 14 games on Thursday, only two have a total that reaches 8.5 runs.

One of those games is this Baltimore Orioles-Toronto Blue Jays matchup in Toronto, and Blue Jays pitcher Jose Berrios is someone to consider attacking for a dinger.

Not every team's Opening Day starter qualifies as a bonafide ace, and Berrios projects to be closer to an average or below-average starter this season. While Berrios posted solid results in 2024 (3.60 ERA), he had underwhelming marks in xERA (4.74) and K rate (19.5%), ultimately finishing tied for the second-most home runs allowed (31).

The right-hander allowed a good chunk of dingers to both sides of the plate, but lefties specifically had his number, launching 1.58 HR/9. This is been a longtime issue, too, as Berrios has allowed roughly 1.6 HR/9 to lefties dating back to 2020.

Of the left-handed sticks we should see in Baltimore's lineup today, Colton Cowser looks like our man.

Cowser is coming off a promising rookie campaign, slugging 24 dingers with a .204 ISO while boasting a 90th percentile barrel rate and 90th percentile maximum exit velocity. He's also projected to bat leadoff, which means he's more likely to get an extra plate appearance late in the game.

Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Unfortunately, our other matchup with an 8.5 total is a Chicago Cubs-Arizona Diamondbacks game that features a pair of pitchers who have consistently suppressed home runs -- so we'll have to look elsewhere for our next target.

New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon struggled to keep the ball in the park last season and gave up 31 bombs -- the same number as the aforementioned Berrios. More specifically, Rodon allowed a ton of loud contact, rating out poorly in barrel rate (4th percentile), average exit velocity (11th percentile), and hard-hit rate (32nd percentile).

As a southpaw, it isn't surprising that right-handed batters did the brunt of the damage. Although Rodon managed a 26.1% strikeout rate versus righties, he coughed up 1.77 HR/9 off a 51.2% fly-ball rate.

The Yankees face the Milwaukee Brewers at home today, which leads us to Rhys Hoskins.

Hoskins strikes out a fair bit (28.8% K rate in 2024), but he should flirt with 25-30 dingers again this season. Although his power metrics weren't quite as strong as his peak campaigns with the Philadelphia Phillies last year, he still managed an 86th percentile barrel rate and consistently put the ball in the air with a 48.4% fly-ball rate. Hoskins has consistently performed well with the platoon advantage over his career, too, and 2024 was no exception, as he produced better marks in both ISO (.236) and K rate (26.7%).

Temperatures will be in the 50s at Yankee Stadium, which isn't ideal, but that could be offset by 12 mph winds blowing out to center.

Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Once the face of MLB, Mike Trout has faded more into the background as the injuries have piled up in recent seasons, but he's still absolutely lethal when healthy.

Had Trout played enough games to qualify last season -- he logged only 126 plate appearances -- he would've rated near the very top in barrel rate (98th percentile) and xSLG (99th percentile), and he still managed a strong maximum velocity (93rd percentile) in that limited time.

The Chicago White Sox are starting inexperienced right-hander Sean Burke on Opening Day, and while that makes this matchup somewhat of a wild card, siding with the veteran slugger over the rookie looks like the wise move.

While Burke put up tantalizing strikeout numbers over 19 MLB innings last season (28.9% K rate), his minor league track record opens up plenty of concerns. Although he also flashed a high strikeout rate in Triple-A (33.0%), he produced a 4.56 xFIP and coughed up 1.63 HR/9. ATC projects him to post a 4.63 ERA while allowing 1.44 HR/9 in 2025 -- hardly ace-like marks.

This is another game where lower temperatures will be working against us, but the Angels do have one of the higher implied team totals (4.2) on Thursday. Our MLB projections give Trout the second-best chance of hitting a home run today, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.