3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 6/30/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Trent Grisham to Hit a Home Run (+390)

There isn't much of a sample to work from when looking at Max Scherzer this season, but the experienced right-handed hurler has been getting hit hard in his limited action. Across his first 2 starts and 8.0 innings pitched in 2025, Scherzer is giving up a 40.0% hard-hit rate and 12.0% barrel rate while his swinging strike rate is all the way down at 5.4%.

Considering that Scherzer's three primary pitches against left-handed hitters are a four-seam fastball, curveball, and changeup, Trent Grisham is someone who stands out in this contest. Since the start of the 2025 campaign, Grisham is tallying a .304 ISO or better and 17.6% barrel rate or better versus all three of Scherzer's primary pitches against lefties.

Besides likely hitting leadoff on the road -- which increases his chances of seeing five-plus plate appearances -- Grisham is sporting a stellar .435 wOBA, 186 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 54.8% flyball rate to right-handed pitchers on the road (compared to a .343 wOBA, 122 wRC+, .244 ISO, and 50.0% flyball rate to right-handed pitchers at home).

With Scherzer still working his way back from a thumb injury that sidelined him for a couple of months, it's worth mentioning that the Toronto Blue Jays' relievers have the ninth-worst HR/9 (1.22), fourth-worst barrel rate (12.0%), and highest flyball rate (52.6%) over the last 14 days.

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Jacob Lopez has certainly flashed plenty of strikeout upside this season, but he's susceptible to right-handed batters. Although it's a limited sample, Lopez is permitting a .335 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9, and 55.4% flyball rate to righties (compared to a .280 wOBA, 1.13 HR/9, and 52.9% flyball rate to lefties).

Since the start of last season, Yandy Diaz has a .154 ISO or better and 8.9% barrel rate or better against all four of Lopez's primary pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and cutter) versus right-handed sluggers. On top of that, Diaz has logged the seventh-best hard-hit rate (56.8%) and third-best average exit velocity (94.7 MPH) over the last 30 days of action.

The Athletics are another team to target for dingers once their starter exits the game, as their bullpen is giving up the eighth-worst HR/9 (1.33) and seventh-worst barrel rate (8.9%) across the last 30 days. With it being humid and winds blowing out to left field at hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field (fourth in home run park factor for righties in 2025), Diaz is in a stellar spot to add to his home run total.

Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Up to this point, Ryne Nelson has produced reverse splits on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, coughing up a .314 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9, and 1.29 WHIP to righties (compared to a .234 wOBA, 0.55 HR/9, and 0.86 WHIP to lefties). Taking that into account, Heliot Ramos is someone who piques my interest in the home run market at these odds.

While Ramos is notching a .356 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and .169 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year, those numbers balloon to a .385 wOBA, 150 wRC+, and .261 ISO in that split when playing away from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. For Monday's matchup versus the Diamondbacks, Ramos will go from playing at the park with the 10th-worst park factor in 2025 to a venue with the 5th-best park factor this season.

Nelson has thrown his four-seam fastball 63.9% of the time versus right-handed batters, and Ramos is recording a .235 ISO, 12.9% barrel rate, 67.7% hard-hit rate, and 35.5% flyball rate against that pitch in 2025. Amid injuries, Arizona's bullpen has also surrendered the fourth-worst HR/9 (1.70), worst barrel rate (14.7%), and second-worst hard-hit rate (50.9%) across the last 14 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.