3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/2/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+540)

George Springer continues to be stuck on two home runs and last hit one way back on April 8th. However, his underlying metrics remain encouraging and suggest more dingers should be on the way.

Despite the lack of homers, Springer is in the 82nd percentile or better in barrel rate (14.5%), hard-hit rate (50.0%), and average exit velocity (92.6%). His .176 ISO is the best clip among Toronto Blue Jays hitters with at least 50 plate appearances.

This could be the right matchup for Springer to add to his home run tally against Cleveland Guardians left-hander Logan Allen. Allen struggled to keep the ball in the park last season (2.03 HR/9), and his 5.11 SIERA and 15.8% strikeout rate through 5 starts in 2025 point to more trouble coming. Allen's also allowing a 45.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed batters.

It just so happens Springer's two home runs have come off southpaws, as well, which is another sign that this could be the right time to get him rolling. While the 35-year-old is past his peak power days, he's still showing evidence that there's some pop left in his bat, and these longer odds are a nice value to pounce on tonight.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Freddie Freeman has been a Statcast darling his whole career, and 2025 has been no different, as he's in the 99th percentile in all of xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and xISO.

Of course, it's those last two metrics that should catch our eye for a home run, and Freeman's current barrel rate (14.0%) and fly-ball rate (45.6%) are above his career averages, too. His .319 ISO leads a stacked Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.

Freeman will have a great opportunity to hit one over the wall versus Atlanta Braves right-hander Grant Holmes. The 29-year-old Holmes didn't make his MLB debut until last season, and he's put up meh numbers so far in 2025 with a 5.12 xERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, 14.5% walk rate, and 38.4% ground-ball rate. He most recently got demolished by the Arizona Diamondbacks for 6 earned runs and 3 home runs over 5 2/3 innings.

With Freeman off to a stellar start and up against a mediocre righty, he looks like an ideal home run target on Friday.

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Kansas City Royals slugger Salvador Perez is dealing with a hip issue, but if he's in the lineup tonight, we should be more than happy to back him for a home run against Baltimore Orioles righty Dean Kremer.

That's because Kremer enters the day with a 5.70 xERA, and he's already coughed up 7 dingers across 6 starts (2.05 HR/9). Between a 14.3% strikeout rate, 38.7% ground-ball rate, and 12.6% barrel rate, Kremer's home run issues are unlikely to go away any time soon.

Meanwhile, Perez is due for positive regression when it comes to dingers. Despite sitting on only 2 round-trippers, he's produced a 16.0% barrel rate (87th percentile), 48.9% hard-hit rate (80th percentile), and .609 xSLG (96th percentile). He has a -.222 differential between his actual SLG (.374) and xSLG, which is the biggest gap in the entire league.

Perez is also showing 3.9 xHR, suggesting he should have double the home runs this season. This could be the right spot for him to start cashing in on his expected metrics.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.