3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 7/23/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians

First 5 Innings Result: Guardians (+108)

Entering Wednesday's showdown between the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians, Cleveland has a slight pitching advantage with Slade Cecconi (3.98 SIERA and 4.02 xFIP) set to make his 12th start of the season. Meanwhile, Zach Eflin (4.42 SIERA and 4.29 xFIP) is slated to make his first start for the Orioles since serving a stint on the 15-day injured list.

Before being placed on the injured list, Eflin coughed up a whopping 27 hits and 17 earned runs across his last 9.0 innings pitched, so he's not in the greatest form ahead of his first appearance since June 28. On the other hand, Cecconi has earned a win in four of his last six outings, and the Guardians' have won six of their last seven contests while either being tied or leading after five innings in five of those games.

Since returning from the All-Star break on July 18, Cleveland's bats have shown signs of life, earning the best wOBA (.377), best wRC+ (147), third-best ISO (.228), and eighth-lowest strikeout rate (19.0%) during that span. In the same timeframe, Baltimore has produced the 6th-worst wOBA (.275), 4th-worst wRC+ (75), 11th-worst ISO (.143), and 10th-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) in the league.

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (-106)

Despite Lucas Giolito holding a respectable 3.59 ERA entering Wednesday's bout with the Philadelphia Phillies, his 12th percentile xERA (5.06) and 11th percentile xBA (.284) suggests he's due for negative regression moving forward. Giolito also ranks in the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.0%) and 23rd percentile in groundball rate (36.9%), which could get him into plenty of trouble against a Phillies squad that has the 13th-best wOBA (.321), 12th-best wRC+ (104), and 7th-lowest strikeout rate (20.2%) versus right-handed pitching this season.

Additionally, Philly has tallied the seventh-most runs per game at home this year (5.06), and it'll be somewhat humid with winds blowing out in Wednesday's matchup. When playing at Citizens Bank Park (eighth in park factor and ninth in home run park factor in 2025) this season, the Phillies have logged the 5th-best wOBA (.340), 6th-best wRC+ (115), and 13th-best ISO (.164) among teams when they play at their home stadium.

While the Phillies have yet to score five-plus runs in each of their first two meetings against the Boston Red Sox in this series, Giolito's underlying metrics are concerning, especially after he allowed four earned runs on the road in his last start versus the Chicago Cubs.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 8.5 Runs (-108)

At first glance, taking the over on total runs in a game where Max Fried will be starting doesn't seem like the wisest decision. However, Fried has strung together three consecutive shaky outings for the New York Yankees, as he's given up three-plus earned runs in three straight starts, which includes a road date with the Toronto Blue Jays -- who he will face again on the road on Wednesday.

In addition to Fried's recent woes on the mound, the Blue Jays are carrying the 7th-best wOBA (.324), 7th-best wRC+ (107), 14th-best ISO (.144), and lowest strikeout rate (18.0%) versus left-handed pitching this season. And once Fried exits Wednesday's contest, he'll give way to a New York bullpen that has posted the 11th-worst SIERA (3.97), 7th-worst WHIP (1.37), and 3rd-worst HR/9 (1.61) over the last 30 days.

On the other side of things, Chris Bassitt is certainly weaker against left-handed hitters, permitting a .370 wOBA, 1.59 WHIP, and 1.36 HR/9 in that split (compared to a .280 wOBA, 1.10 WHIP, and 0.67 HR/9 to right-handed hitters), and the Yankees have a handful of dangerous lefties to deploy in their lineup. Besides New York having guys like Trent Grisham (161 wRC+ vs. RHP), Cody Bellinger (114 wRC+), Jazz Chisholm (164 wRC+), Ben Rice (134 wRC+), and Jasson Dominguez (123 wRC+) to throw at Bassitt, the veteran hurler has surrendered three-plus earned in his two previous starts against the Yankees in 2025.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.