3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 6/12/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

Tigers -1.5 (-114)

The Detroit Tigers are 7-1 over their last eight games with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Plus, they've won by at least two runs in two of the last three. Will Detroit keep rolling with its ace starting?

Dean Kremer on the rubber for the Baltimore Orioles is a big boost to the Tigers' chances of covering the run line. He has a 4.98 ERA, 4.42 SIERA, and 4.38 xFIP while ranking in the 37th percentile of barrel rate allowed. Kremer has also given up 1.24 HR/9, and Detroit carries the 11th-highest home run percentage. Pitch usage is another worry for Kremer as the Tigers are in the top half of runs above average against his four most-used pitches. Baltimore's bullpen probably won't provide much relief, either, with the ninth-most runs allowed.

Of course, the biggest support for this pick is Skubal on the mound. He's in line to win his second consecutive Cy Young, holding the shortest odds to win the American League Cy Young (-210). The proof is in the pudding as he touts a 2.16 ERA and absurd 2.22 SIERA and 2.31 xFIP. He's allowed one run over his previous three appearances and has a mind-boggling 0.38 ERA during the span.

Baltimore has the second-lowest batting average against left-handed hurlers (.206) while scoring the fourth-fewest runs in the split. The O's are in the bottom half of runs above average against two of Skubal's three most-used pitches, including the second-lowest mark against sinkers. One of Baltimore's few strengths at the plate has been hitting the 11th-most big flies per contest, but Skubal is giving up 0.65 HR/9 and is in the 92nd percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed.

Look for the Tigers to enjoy another comfortable win thanks to Skubal wheeling and dealing.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs (+120)

The St. Louis Cardinals are favored (-138) on the road tonight thanks to the starting pitcher matchup. Sonny Gray (3.35 ERA and 3.13 SIERA) will be on the mound while the Milwaukee Brewers called up their top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski to make his majors debut.

At 4.4 runs per game over the last 10, St. Louis is slightly under its season-long average of 4.7 per contest (seventh-most). Boosting that recent average is in the cards against a baby-faced rookie. Misiorowski has been hailed for his blazing fastball in the minors. In fact, he has the fastest tracked pitch by a starter in the majors or minors this season at 103.0 MPH. In Triple-A, Misiorowski was throwing a heater over 65.0% of his pitches, and the Cardinals have the fourth-most runs above average against the pitch.

Much of the rookie's success leans on striking out opponents, for he posted a K/9 surpassing 11.0 in Triple-A. However, St. Louis is not an easy order to face with the seventh-lowest K%. This becomes even more of a problem with the Cards consistently raking against Misiorowski's top pitch.

Milwaukee's bullpen further elevates the over by carrying the 10th-highest ERA and 12th-highest SIERA. Misiorowski could have a welcome to the big league moment in his very first outing.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (+108)

We have another team total worth targeting for tonight's slate. There haven't been many positives about the 28-41 Pittsburgh Pirates, but Andrew Heaney features a strong 3.24 ERA. However, one could argue regression is imminent as he carries a 4.70 xERA, 4.52 SIERA, and 4.28 xFIP. Facing the Chicago Cubs could be the start of a slippery slope.

Chicago excels against left-handed pitching, posting the seventh-most runs and ninth-highest batting average. Additionally, the Cubs are in the top half of runs above average against four-seam fastballs and sliders -- which are two of Heaney's three-most used pitches.

The concerns go on as Chicago has the fourth-highest SLG and isolated power. Heaney has given up 1.12 HR/9, which is slightly above the league average of 1.03. This checks out with Pittsburgh's starter in the 43rd percentile of barrel rate allowed and 39th percentile of hard-hit percentage ceded.

Rounding out the over pick, the Pirates' bullpen also has the 11th-highest ERA and SIERA.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.