3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 3/31/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds

Under 9.0 Runs (-122)

Although this game is being played at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, cooler weather and solid pitching should keep scoring down in this Texas Rangers-Cincinnati Reds matchup.

While the wind is blowing out a bit, this is expected to be Monday's second-coldest game with temperatures dipping into the 40s, so the ball won't exactly been jumping off the bat tonight.

Right-handers Kumar Rocker and Brady Singer will take the mound, and both should be able to contribute toward the under.

Texas' Rocker produced a tantalizing 39.6% strikeout rate across 36 2/3 innings in the minors last season, and in three MLB starts, he managed a promising 3.86 xFIP, 25.5% K rate, and 51.5% ground-ball rate. Projection systems think this level of play is sustainable, as ATC projects him for a 3.86 ERA and 25.3% strikeout rate in 2025.

We have a much longer track record for Cincinnati's Singer, who put together a solid 2024 campaign with a 3.62 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 47.1% ground-ball rate. Although Singer has has often struggled with allowing loud contact (25th percentile in hard-hit rate last year), the lower temperatures should help limit the impact of that.

Finally, if we look at these two active rosters against right-handed pitching, the Reds have been below average in wRC+ (97) dating back to last season while the Rangers are only slightly above average (104).

With so many factors pointing toward a lower-scoring game, the under looks like the play.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Over 8.5 Runs (-106)

While loanDepot park is a one of the league's tougher venues to hit home runs, it's actually slightly above average for hitting overall, per Baseball Savant, and with a pair of exploitable pitchers taking the mound, we could see scoring exceed expectations between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. We're also avoiding the cooler temperatures affecting other areas this time of year, which is another bonus for plating runs.

Miami is starting righty Cal Quantrill, and it's easy to see him having a rough day at the office. Quantrill posted a 5.31 xERA, 5.07 SIERA, 16.8% strikeout rate, and 10.5% walk rate in 2024, and while he did play for the Colorado Rockies, he performed poorly both at Coors Field and on the road. The Mets' active roster boasts the second-best wRC+ versus right-handers (119) going back to last year, too.

Meanwhile, New York left-hander David Peterson has a less daunting task on paper against a below-average Miami offense -- but the trouble is the Marlins could have nearly an entire lineup of righty sticks. That's notable because Peterson was significantly worse facing righties last year, logging a 4.66 xFIP, 16.5% K rate, and 10.5% BB rate.

There's a chance one or both starters struggle tonight, giving us a clear path to the over.

Chicago Cubs at Athletics

Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (-113)

The Chicago Cubs' bats have an appealing matchup against Joey Estes, and while temperatures in the 50s aren't nearly as appealing, this is somewhat balanced out by winds blowing out to center at roughly 15 mph.

Estes was knocked around by the long ball last season, coughing up 1.62 HR/9 with a 16.9% K rate and 55.5% fly-ball rate. While his 4.43 xERA wasn't egregious, it's hard to see him keeping the ball in the park a whole lot more given his marks in barrel rate (14th percentile), K rate (8th percentile), and ground-ball rate (1st percentile).

Further, the A's 2025 home venue, Sutter Health Park, could be a better park for hitters than Oakland Coliseum.

The Cubs' active roster also comes in with a 113 wRC+ versus righties going back to 2024, further adding optimism that they can have a productive night at the plate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.