3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 4/4/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

Dodgers ML (-126)

We aren't paying a significant tax to back the Los Angeles Dodgers, so this is a good opportunity to side with them to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies.

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto recorded a 3.14 SIERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 6.0% walk rate, and 47.9% ground-ball rate in 2024, so we should have full confidence in his ability to keep a strong Phillies lineup from going off. Yamamoto has already produced two strong starts, and in his last one, he struck out 10 Detroit Tigers over five innings.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia will have left-hander Jesus Luzardo take the mound, and Los Angeles' active roster boasts a 129 wRC+ against lefties going back to last year. Luzardo has also started out strong after racking up 11 Ks versus the Washington Nationals, but this will be a big step up in competition. Most projection systems on FanGraphs project him to have an ERA above 4.00 this season.

The Dodgers haven't lost a game yet and look poised to keep the good times rolling on Friday.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-106)

Given how the 0-7 Atlanta Braves have begun their season, this could backfire in spectacular fashion, but this is still a strong offense on paper. FanGraphs projects this lineup to average the sixth-most runs per game (5.08), yet this team has scored 14 total through those seven losses.

Perhaps playing at home for the first time will help get the Braves' bats going. We'll have ideal hitting conditions with temperatures up around 85 degrees at first pitch, and Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer had a rough go of it in 2024.

Over 11 starts last season, Meyer posted a 4.74 xERA (17th percentile) with an 18.5% strikeout rate (14th percentile), 13.9% barrel rate (1st percentile), and 47.8% hard-hit rate (2nd percentile).

It's worth noting that Meyer did shine in his 2025 debut with improved velocity, allowing just 1 earned run in 5 2/3 innings with 7 punchouts. However, his swinging-strike rate (10.8%) wasn't much higher than last season, and he didn't show a high K rate in spring training (19.6%), so it's a bit early to dub him a breakout arm.

Atlanta's bats ought to wake up sooner rather than later, and this could be the right time to buy in on their offense scoring 5+ runs.

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

Under 7.5 Runs (+100)

We're looking at some pretty gross weather in Kansas City, and between that and just good enough starting pitching, we should see a low-scoring contest. The forecast is showing temperatures in the 40s and winds blowing out at 10 mph, and with some precipitation sprinkled in, there simply won't be great hitting conditions.

Tonight's starters are expected to be right-handers Dean Kremer and Seth Lugo. The two pitchers should be middle-of-the-pack starters in 2025, as ATC projects Kremer for a 4.28 ERA and Lugo at a 3.96 ERA. Neither pitcher has a heavy lean toward ground balls, but that might be a positive on a night where the ball is unlikely to carry.

Both offenses land closer to league average, as well. Among active rosters dating back to last season, the Baltimore Orioles ranks 18th in wRC+ versus righties (103) while the Kansas City Royals are 15th (105).

With nothing really popping out in this matchup, we shouldn't expect a ton of action on a cold, damp evening, which should lead to the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.