Logo
START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK
Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
NCAAF

3 Best College Football Bets and Predictions for Week 9

Subscribe to our newsletter

3 Best College Football Bets and Predictions for Week 9

Each week in college football, there are tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

With three top-12 teams in the AP Top 25 Poll on bye in Week 9, top-25 matchups on Saturday are limited. The SEC continues to lead the way with 10 teams ranked in the top 25, providing college football fans with three more top-25 conference clashes. Outside of the Southeastern Conference, which other matchups should draw attention in Week 9?

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Week 9 Betting Picks

UCLA at No. 2 Indiana

UCLA Under 13.5 (-110)

While we mentioned the SEC is the nation's most complete conference, college football's top squads reside in the Big Ten. Following the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, the Indiana Hoosiers continue to ride high as No. 2 in the AP Poll. This feels different than a season ago as the Hoosiers are getting legitimate national recognition, holding the third-shortest odds to win the national championship (+850) while quarterback Fernando Mendoza is tied for the shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy (+330).

Although IU is favored by 25.5 points, the UCLA Bruins have built some serious momentum by winning three consecutive games while going 2-1 against the spread (ATS). After posting 14.3 points per game (PPG) over the first four games of the season, the Bruins are racking up 33.3 PPG in the previous three. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are posting 39.0 PPG (eighth-most).

UCLA Total Points

Under
Oct 25 4:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Backed by its 38.5 team total, Indiana should flirt with 40 points in this one. UCLA still cedes 27.4 PPG (80th) and 5.7 yards per play (81st) while ranking 80th in NET expected points added (EPA) per play allowed, per Game On Paper. The Bruins ranked 123rd in EPA per rushing attempt allowed while giving up 5.1 yards per carry (118th), and the Hoosiers tout a 59.1% rush-play rate (16th) while posting 5.2 yards per rushing attempt (22nd).

I'm confident Indiana will do more than enough to contribute to the over, but will UCLA do enough for this to surpass 53.5? The Hoosiers just gave up 293 passing yards and 7.7 yards per passing attempt against the Michigan State Spartans in Week 8. This offense ranks 81st in EPA per dropback. The Bruins rank 121st in the category on the season, and Nico Iamaleava has still showed little improvement during the three-game winning streak with only 6.8 yards per passing attempt while throwing two interceptions in Week 8.

The Hoosiers' run defense has been consistently dominant, holding all four conference opponents to under 3.2 yards per rushing attempt. IU ranking 15th in EPA per rushing attempt allowed has passed the eye test time and time again. Meanwhile, most of UCLA's recent success has come from the ground -- including 193 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry in Week 8.

If the run game is held in check, I still have little confidence in Iamaleava. With that said, I'm leaning with under 53.5 due to UCLA's lack of offense. We can get better value by targeting the Bruins' team total.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis

Memphis +5.5 (+100)

Among Group of Five teams, the South Florida Bulls currently carry the best chance to make the College Football Playoffs (+142). Prior to October 18's 31-24 loss against the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers, the Memphis Tigers were neck and neck with USF to represent the Group of Five in the playoff. Memphis now carries +980 odds to make the College Football Playoff. The Tigers certainly need to win out paired with help to appear on the national stage, and that begins with taking out the Bulls on Saturday.

Memphis is a home 5.5-point underdog. After attempting only 10 passes in last week's loss, quarterback Brendon Lewis exited with an injury and is now listed as day-to-day. In an offense that attempts 8.1 yards per passing attempt (35th), this causes some concern. However, the two teams are nearly even in NET EPA per play with USF ranked 29th while the Tigers are 24th in the category.

Spread

Memphis
Oct 25 4:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Both teams are in the top 40 for the highest rush-play rates, and each squad is in the top 30 for the most yards per rushing attempt. Even if Lewis cannot go, Memphis has a quality rush defense that ranks 29th in EPA per carry allowed while limiting teams to 3.6 yards per rushing attempt (29th). Ranking 89th in EPA per dropback allowed is concerning, but opponents still post a meh 6.8 yards per passing attempt against the Tigers (46th).

This defense looks good enough to hold up -- especially when it limits opponents to the 12th-lowest red zone scoring percentage. This paired with a home advantage generates confidence in a Memphis cover.

The turnover department is the final straw. USF is playing an extremely volatile brand of football by averaging 1.5 turnovers per game (95th) while forcing 2.7 takeaways per game (1st). What happens when an opponent takes care of the ball? The Tigers are logging 1.2 turnovers per contest (56th) and are suited to force turnovers by averaging 2.0 takeaways per game (9th). Memphis touting a high rush-play rate should limit turnover opportunities, and it could lean on the run even more if Lewis is absent.

If the turnover battle goes the Tigers' way, an outright win (+188) is in the picture.

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt

Missouri Moneyline (+118)

As usual, we have another top-25 SEC battle to break down. A top-15 collision between the Missouri Tigers and Vanderbilt Commodores is the host of College GameDay with Vandy favored by 2.5 points.

The Commodores' run has been a fun one, but I'm putting Vanderbilt squarely on upset alert. Two things travel in college football -- a run game and defense. Mizzou has both by ranking 12th in EPA per rushing attempt and 21st in NET EPA allowed per play. Vandy does not have the same balance, ranking 8th in NET EPA per play compared to 113th in NET EPA per play allowed.

Moneyline

Missouri
Oct 25 7:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

After holding an explosive Alabama Crimson Tide passing attack to 6.5 yards per passing attempt on October 11, I'm officially buying in on the Tigers' defense. This secondary is equipped to slow Diego Pavia and his offense that posts 8.3 yards per passing attempt (28th). Furthermore, Mizzou gives up 2.7 yards per carry (7th), which should help limit the Commodores' attack that logs 6.4 yards per rushing attempt (3rd).

While the Tigers have a 57.7% rush-play rate (24th), the passing game could be a difference maker -- ranked 33rd in EPA per dropback while Vandy is 113th in EPA per dropback allowed. The Commodores are 76th in third down conversion rate allowed and 99th in red zone scoring percentage allowed, and Missouri is 8th in third down conversion rate and 32nd in red zone scoring rate.

On the other side of the ball, the Tigers sit 8th in third down conversion rate allowed and 24th in red zone scoring percentage allowed. While Vandy is 2nd in third down conversion rate, its 50th in red zone scoring rate.

Leaning on a strong defense, I believe the Tigers will pull off the upset by dominating key downs and the red zone.


Get a 30% Profit Boost Token for any wager on any college football game taking place October 23rd through 25th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest college football odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the college football betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup