3 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Kentucky at Ole Miss
The college basketball season is rolling along, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
One of the top matchups of Tuesday is yet another top-25 SEC clash, featuring Kentucky traveling to Ole Miss. Both teams took falls in the AP Top 25 Poll this week as the No. 14 Wildcats fell by 10 points as 9-point favorites against Arkansas, and the No. 25 Rebels lost by 10 against the rolling Auburn Tigers. Which team will bounce back tonight?
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kentucky at Ole Miss Betting Picks
Over 156.5 Points (-114)
Points should be the name of the game between Kentucky and Ole Miss. Each squad is in the 58th percentile for the quickest paces in college basketball. The Cats average 87.2 points per game (99th percentile) while the Rebels put up 77.7 PPG (81st percentile). Plus, both offenses are in the 66th percentile for effective field goal percentage (eFG%).
Bart Torvik's game projections have the two combining for 159 points, firmly putting us on over 156.5 points. Most of this pick has to do with Kentucky's influence. While it has college basketball's 3rd-best adjusted offensive efficiency, it ranks 102nd in adjusted defense. The over is 3-1 in Big Blue's previous four contests.
Total Points
Ole Miss' defense (16th in adjusted efficiency) will likely be the biggest factor pushing against the over. However, we've seen UK consistently put up points against elite defenses -- such as 78 points vs. Tennessee (second in defense) or 106 points vs. Florida (ninth in defense). The Rebels are in the 11th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed while the Wildcats are in the 71st percentile of three-point attempts per game.
Nothing screams the over like three-balls, and it extends to the other side of the court. Kentucky is in the 10th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed, and Ole Miss is in the 68th percentile for shot distribution from three on offense.
Koby Brea Over 10.5 Points (-105)
One of the prime factors for the Cats going into this game as 4.5-point underdogs is the continued absence of point guard Lamont Butler. Without an experienced true ball handler in the lineup as backup point Kerr Kriisa has also missed extended time, UK has turned it over 26 times over the last two games. That 13.0 per-game average is a big jump compared to 10.7 turnovers per game this season (83rd percentile), which has been partially elevated by the past two games.
When Butler (13.2 PPG) is out, this also means elevated usage for the rest of the Cats' backcourt. Koby Brea -- who is usually the first man off the bench -- is typically inserted into the starting lineup when Butler is out. He's logged 30.0 minutes per game over the last two compared to his season-long of 24.1.
Koby Brea (UK) - Total Points
Brea is second on the team in three-point attempts for the season (121). Plus, he's shot a lethal 46.3%. However, he's struggled of recent at 31.4% over his previous seven games. This feels like a cold streak that's bound to snap, and what better time than tonight?
Kentucky needs increased production from other guards, and Ole Miss has the tendency to give up plenty of three-point shots. Both aid Brea's chances of having a good night. His 10.5-point prop isn't asking for too much either as he logs 10.9 PPG this season.
Sean Pedulla to Make 3+ Threes (+110)
The Rebels make 8.8 threes per game (79th percentile) and attempt 25.2 shots from beyond the arc per contest (76th percentile). Opponents average 8.6 three-point makes (16th percentile) and 28.8 three-point shots per game (2nd percentile) against Kentucky. The Cats have gotten a bit lucky this season, too, with opponents making only 29.8% of three-point attempts (94th percentile).
However, this luck seems to be running out as Arkansas -- who averages 7.5 made threes per game (49th percentile) while shooting 33.5% from three (47th percentile) -- just drained 13 three-pointers while shooting 52.0% from deep on Saturday. Ole Miss has enjoyed solid efficiency from three this season at 34.8% (69th percentile).
Outside of Butler (2.81), Kentucky's backcourt has a group of concerning Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya. Otega Oweh (1.59 DBPR), Jaxson Robinson (0.82 DBPR), and Koby Brea (-0.38 DBPR) can all certainly be "got" on defense.
With that said, backing one of the Rebels' guards in scoring is a wise idea. What better player than their leading scorer Sean Pedulla (15.2 PPG)? With the Cats giving up threes in bulk, this is an ideal matchup for Pedulla, who leads the team with 134 three-point shots while shooting 40.3%.
Pedulla comes off a 29-point outing and has reached at least three made three-pointers in four of his last five. Even better, he's shooting a blistering 50.0% from three during the four-game stretch. Considering he takes 53.8% of his shots from three, the +110 odds for 3+ made threes is outstanding value. Pedulla is facing a weak defensive backcourt that gives up a ton of three-point shots. Expect this hot streak to keep up.
Get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg parlay on any college basketball game happening February 4th or 5th. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.