First Touchdown Scorer for Super Bowl LIX: Odds, Best Bets, and Darkhorses

Whether it's any time touchdown props, individual player props, or even novelty props, there's no shortage of betting markets to choose from in Super Bowl LXI between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

But if we're looking for a straightforward prop bet that should settle early in this matchup, it's the first touchdown scorer market.

Which players are most likely to score the first touchdown of this year's Super Bowl? And are there any darkhorses who could be worth taking a chance on?

First Touchdown Scorer Odds for Super Bowl LIX

Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley (+410) has the shortest odds to score first, and he's followed closely by teammate Jalen Hurts (+600).

After those two, we get three K.C. players with the next shortest odds between Travis Kelce (+800), Kareem Hunt (+900), and Xavier Worthy (+1000).

Our Brandon Gdula touched on early-game trends for this year's Super Bowl, which included the full list of players who scored their team's first touchdown this season.

Between the Chiefs and Eagles, Barkley scored the most first TDs, tallying 6 of the Eagles' 20 opening touchdowns. After him, four players logged the opening TD three or more times: Hurts (five), Hunt (five), Worthy (four), and A.J. Brown (three).

First Touchdown Scorer Picks for Super Bowl LIX

Saquon Barkley (+410)

Including the postseason, Saquon Barkley has scored 20 touchdowns across 19 games, and 5 of those TDs have come over the last two games.

In the Eagles' three playoff games, he's soaked up 44.8% of their red zone opportunities (carries plus targets), which is up from the 37.9% clip he earned in the regular season. For context, the only Philadelphia player who comes anywhere close to these marks is Jalen Hurts, who logged a 29.3% red zone opportunity share in his healthy regular-season games and is at 20.7% this postseason.

Kansas City doesn't have anyone who can really compare to this usage. Kareem Hunt boasts a 31.5% red zone opportunity share over 15 games (including the postseason), but if we narrow that down to the 7 games with Isiah Pacheco since Week 13, that drops to 16.3%. Xavier Worthy has Kansas City's highest red zone opportunity share in the playoffs (25.0%).

With all that in mind, perhaps it isn't surprising that Saquon has -190 any time touchdown odds in Super Bowl LXI.

However, while Barkley sure looks likely to find the end zone at some point, we're not getting a ton of value at those odds, which is why turning to the first touchdown scorer market could be a viable alternative.

As noted earlier, Barkley scored 6 of his team's 20 first touchdowns, the most of any player in this Super Bowl. It can't hurt that Philadelphia has scored on their opening drive in all three playoff games, too, one of which was from Saquon in the NFC Championship.

The Eagles actually struggled to score TDs on their opening drive until late in the season, but that's where their stout defense gave them a lift. Despite failing to score an opening-drive touchdown until Week 16, the team still logged the first touchdown in 75% of their games.

Between Saquon's fantastic individual production, his elite role, and the Eagles' overall and recent success at scoring the first touchdown, this looks one of the better ways to find some plus-money value backing a Barkley prop.

Jalen Hurts (+600)

If Barkley isn't the first touchdown scorer, it stands to reason that it's because Hurts punched one in instead.

Hurts' unique goal-line role is well documented, and it's telling that he finished the regular season tied for the NFL's second-most carries inside the five-yard line (18) despite playing just 15 full games. While he's seen slightly fewer red zone opportunities in the playoffs, he's fresh off a three-touchdown game in the NFC Championship, and his usage near the goal line throughout the season is the only one that can compete with Saquon's.

Much like Barkley, Philadelphia's overall team success at generating first touchdown scorers benefits Hurts, as well, and he also secured one of their opening TDs in these playoffs. Overall, the QB has generated 18 rushing touchdowns (4 in the postseason), which puts him in the same ballpark as Barkley's 20 rushing-plus-receiving TDs, and Hurts did so in fewer games. Given Hurts' longer odds, that arguably makes him one of the best values in this market.

While Barkley obviously wasn't with the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, it's worth noting that Hurts racked up three rushing scores in that matchup -- including the game's first TD.

Xavier Worthy (+1000)

Kansas City didn't have anyone dominate red zone opportunities quite like Philadelphia this season, but they did have four players score multiple first touchdowns between Hunt (five), Worthy (four), DeAndre Hopkins (two), and Rashee Rice (two).

As previously mentioned, Hunt's seen his role in the red zone decline with Pacheco back, which may come as a surprise considering he's riding a four-game touchdown streak and was the first touchdown scorer in both of K.C.'s playoff games.

However, if we look under the hood, there's nothing notable about Hunt's postseason usage, as he's logged a 16.7% red zone opportunity share, 30.8% red zone rush share, and 50.0% red zone snap rate.

Additionally, this is a brutal matchup against an Eagles defense that's third in schedule-adjusted rush defense and allowed the second-fewest rushing TDs to running backs in the regular season (five) and has given up just one in the playoffs.

Regarding the wideouts, D-Hop has seen three total targets this postseason and most recently logged a meager 17.5% snap rate, while Rice has been out since Week 4. That leaves us with Worthy.

In addition to Worthy showing a 25.0% red zone opportunity share in the playoffs, he's led the team with a 45.5% red zone target share, which could prove to be important if the Chiefs' run game gets stuffed. This usage also dates back to when the rookie saw an uptick in snaps from Week 14 onward, as he has a 25.7% red zone opportunity share and 37.8% red zone target share over the last six games (excluding a meaningless Week 18).

What makes Worthy unique is that in addition to seeing red zone targets, he'll occasionally get designed runs, giving him another path to reaching in the end zone. He's has a 12.1% red zone rush share over the aforementioned six-game sample, which is partially why he has a high red zone opportunity share relative to his fellow pass catchers.

Including the playoffs, Worthy has scored four rushing touchdowns this season, and two of them even came from 21 yards out.

Worthy's usage might not be at the elite level of our previous entries, but at +1000 odds, this is a price we can get on board with for a player who's had a better recent red zone role than many may realize.

Dallas Goedert (+1700)

If we're taking a chance on a longshot, Dallas Goedert is intriguing due to his individual matchup.

That's because K.C. struggled to defend tight ends over this campaign. Against that position, the Chiefs' defense ranked 32nd in receiving yards (1,191), T-31st in receptions (111), 32nd in yards per route run (1.93), and 32nd in catch rate over expectation (8.7%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

We have a limited sample of game with all of Goedart, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith healthy, but over those six games, the tight end amassed a solid 23.5% red zone target share and 30.0% end zone target share, both second to Brown. In the playoffs, he scored in the Wild Card Round and has a 20.0% red zone target share.

Goedart will be up against it, as his overall red zone opportunity share sits at just 6.9% in the postseason due to Barkley and Hurts hogging most of those chances. But the Eagles could elect to exploit Kansas City's unique weakness to tight ends, opening the door for Goedart to cash in as a darkhorse first TD candidate.

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