3 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Florida vs. Houston

The Round of 4 was the story of the comeback. Florida roared back from a nine-point deficit in the second half against Auburn, winning 79-73. Meanwhile, Houston pulled off one of the most memorable comebacks in recent history by erasing a 14-point deficit while ending the game on a 25-8 run against Duke. In the 70-67 win, the Cougars held the Blue Devils to one made field goal over the final 10:30, and they ended the contest on a 9-0 run.

It's safe to say both of these teams are not afraid of adversity. Either team reaching this stage is far from a stretch, though. Prior to the first round, the Gators had the second-shortest odds to win the tournament while Houston ranked fourth. In a battle between two of KenPom's top three teams, what are the best bets in the men's national championship game?

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for Florida vs. Houston, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

Betting Picks for Florida vs. Houston

Walter Clayton Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-115)

Starting with player props, Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. is on an all-time heater by logging 24.6 points per game (PPG) in the tournament while recording 32.0 PPG over the last two. This feels eerily similar to past absurd runs by guards, including Kemba Walker of UConn in 2011.

While Houston boasts an elite defense, I don't expect Clayton's hot streak to slow. He takes 56.9% of his shots from three, and the Cougars are in the 14th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed.

According to EvanMiya, Houston's backcourt of LJ Cryer (2.00), Milos Uzan (2.21), and Emanuel Sharp (2.36) have the worst marks in Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) among the Cougs' rotation. Between plenty of three-point looks and facing some of the Cougars' weakest defenders, the over is within reach for Clayton.

J'Wan Roberts Over 6.5 Rebounds (-108)

These are two of the best offensive rebounding teams in college basketball, ranking in the top eight of offensive rebounding percentage. The battle of the glass could be the deciding factor of this game for many reasons, including controlling the pace of play. Houston is in the 99th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos while Florida is in the 84th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos.

J'Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler must rebound well against the Gators' deep frontcourt. Roberts leads the team with 6.5 rebounds per game (RPG) while Tugler boasts a 14.6% offensive rebounding rate (third-highest in Big 12). Roberts' offensive rebounding percentage isn't too shabby either at 9.8%.

With Florida ranking 137th in defensive rebounding percentage, second-chance points could be a huge factor for the Cougars. Roberts has the chops on the offensive glass, and he's averaging 10.7 RPG when totaling over 20 minutes in the tournament.

He recorded only three and two rebounds in two of his five tournament games, but Roberts logged only 18.0 minutes per game in those contests compared to his season-long average of 30.2 minutes per contest. Plus, Houston won those two games by an average margin of +28.5 points per game.

We shouldn't expect a blowout win for Houston, meaning Roberts' minutes should be the usual. With that said, over 6.5 rebounds is shaping up to be a great bet.

Houston Moneyline (-105)

Game projections are showing some interesting results for this bout. Despite Florida being listed as a 1.5-point favorite, Bart Torvik has Houston winning by four points while KenPom has the Cougs by a point.

The Gators' offense (second in adjusted offensive efficiency) against the Cougars' defense (first in adjusted defensive efficiency) is the matchup grabbing most of my attention.

While Houston's three-point defense is concerning, it is in the 93rd percentile of close twos shot distribution allowed. Meanwhile, Florida's defense is in the 67th percentile of this category.

The Gators should find success from three, but the Cougars also have a dangerous three-point attack by shooting 39.9% from deep (the highest) while making 8.2 threes per contest (70th percentile). The Gators rank 123rd in three-point shot distribution allowed.

I'm leaning into projections by taking Houston to win outright. An advantage around the rim looks likely, and the Cougs rank 4th and 63rd in turnovers and forced turnovers per game while Florida is 117th and 167th in the categories. Winning the possession battle should hold a ton of weight with these teams playing opposite styles.

You can also click here to get our updated printable Men's College Basketball Tournament bracket for the Round of 4.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.