3 Best Bets for Tonight's Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft

For the past few months, we've been firmly in the middle of lying season.

NFL general managers and scouts spend the winter shooting out misinformation, attempting to deceive their rivals while keeping their true plans under wraps.

Now that it's the day of round one, some real information is finally going to start pouring in. And we've got to take that information more seriously than what we've seen prior to that.

When Bill Belichick was on the Pat McAfee Show last year, he said that legitimate information is most likely to leak within 12 hours of the draft's start. We are now within that window.

As a result, now is not the time to bet against movement in the betting markets. If you've been eyeing a player to wind up a top-10 pick, and his odds are suddenly longer, that's probably an indication he's going to slip.

I say that all as a disclaimer for what we're going to discuss below. I'm going to lay out the value I like as things stand on Thursday morning. But if you are reading this in the afternoon, and the odds have moved against me, it's a good sign you might want to sit that one out.

With that caveat in mind, I do think there are some good bets to be had. Let's dig into where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Draft betting odds now that most of the cards are firmly on the table.

Best Bets for Tonight's NFL Draft

The Saints to Draft Jaxson Dart (+250)

A couple key things have emerged with last night's and this morning's deluge of mock drafts and intel:

• Jaxson Dart is live to go ahead of Shedeur Sanders
• The New York Giants and New Orleans Saints are the two teams most likely to snag Dart

Dart has shortened to +150 to be the second quarterback drafted, a move I agree with after Todd McShay, Dane Brugler, and Daniel Jeremiah all had Dart going ahead of Sanders in their final mocks. I don't mind +150, but knowing I could have gotten that at +185 yesterday provides a bit of a mental barrier to firing now.

Additionally, I do think the Giants are the more likely team to draft Dart, both because the reporting of head coach Brian Daboll liking him has been more widespread and because they have more draft capital than the Saints. But the Giants are at -120 while the Saints are +250, and I'm inclined to take the discount.

In a newsletter McShay sent out Thursday morning, he dove deep on how the Saints' love for Dart was higher than he anticipated. That could be a smokescreen from a team trying to coax more draft capital out of the Giants in a trade-up, but a lot of McShay's reports this draft cycle have been ahead of the market.

I don't think there's much chance the Saints take Dart at ninth overall (he's +850 to go there, and I don't think that's a value, personally). This would be more about their trading back into the first to snag him or getting him in the second. Regardless, it's a convergence of need and reporting that we can still get at a reasonable number in +250.

Kelvin Banks Jr. to Be the Sixth Overall Pick (+145)

Almost every late, important mock draft has agreed: Kelvin Banks Jr. is the most likely pick for the Las Vegas Raiders at sixth overall.

In addition to the McShay, Jeremiah, and Brugler mocks mentioned above, Albert Breer and Lance Zierlein also had Banks going sixth. When that many plugged-in voices are all saying the same thing, we should listen.

There's always a chance the Raiders trade out of this pick, in which case we could be getting poor value. That's why I wouldn't want to bet this if it were to get any shorter than +120. But at +145, I'm willing to buy into a late-breaking consensus pick in mocks.

Over 2.5 Running Backs in the First Round (+125)

Most of my favorite long-ish-shot bets revolve around teams addressing running back late in round one:

• The Buffalo Bills are +3100 to take a running back with their first pick even with James Cook embroiled in a contract dispute
• The Kansas City Chiefs are +1000 despite holding a late call with TreVeyon Henderson that involved Andy Reid, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN
• The Washington Commanders are +650 with Brian Robinson a free agent after this year

I think those are all enticing if you want to roll the dice (and I did so on the Bills and Chiefs, myself). This market -- effectively -- lumps them all together, though, which helps matters quite a bit.

The late steam on Henderson has his odds to go in the first round down to -195 while Hampton sits at -1050. Because these are one-way markets -- where you can't bet them to not be first-rounders -- we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. Still, there's plenty of momentum around the running backs, and the opportunity cost at the position seems lower in this draft than most.

I'm willing to buy into the strength of the class by taking over 2.5 at +125.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $250 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for tonight's draft? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL Draft betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.