3 Best Bets for the Cincinnati Open Men's and Women's Tennis Finals

The Cincinnati Open concludes on Monday with both the men's and women's finals.

On the men's side, we'll be treated to yet another championship match between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who last faced off in the Wimbledon final a month ago. For the women, Iga Swiatek will look to cap off a strong tournament as a heavy favorite over Jasmine Paolini.

Where can we find betting value in these two matchups?

Sinner vs. Alcaraz Predictions for the Cincinnati Open Championship

Alcaraz ML (+168)
Over 2.5 Sets (+120)

Dating back to last year, the last four matches between Sinner and Alcaraz have been in finals, and three of those have come within the last few months. Chances are we'll be seeing plenty more championship bouts between them for years to come, and no one would be shocked if these are the last two standing at the upcoming US Open.

Sinner finally broke a five-match skid versus Alcaraz at Wimbledon, and with the tennis season shifting to hard courts, the Italian is now on his preferred surface. Over the past 52 weeks, Sinner is a ridiculous 37-1 on hard courts and ranks first overall in hard court Elo rating, per Tennis Abstract. There's a good reason he's favored on Monday.

Still, I can't help but be intrigued by these plus odds to back Alcaraz, who just so happens to be the one guy who's beaten Sinner in the above sample. The Spaniard still leads the all-time head-to-head 8-5, and even on hard courts, he's gone 5-2 versus Sinner.

Sinner has been the more consistent player in Cincinnati, winning all five matches in straight sets, but it's hard to see Alcaraz dropping his level with that Wimbledon loss still fresh in his memory. We also shouldn't overlook that Alcaraz was nearly untouchable across the clay and grass seasons, flashing a 38-2 record since the beginning of April.

In addition to seeing value in the underdog, the plus odds for this to go three sets are also appealing. In 13 meetings between these two, both players have won a set in 9 of them, and the 4 that went straight sets all featured a tiebreak.

Swiatek vs. Paolini Predictions for the Cincinnati Open Championship

Under 19.5 Total Match Games (-110)

Swiatek seemed to regain her confidence during the grass season, culminating in her winning her first Wimbledon title. She's carried that over into a strong run in Cincinnati where she hasn't dropped a set. She has gone under 20 total match games in three of her four completed matches.

In addition to finding her form, Iga also owns a 5-0 career record versus Paolini -- and most of those battles haven't been close. Outside of a competitive three-setter in 2024, Swiatek has won the other four meetings in straight sets, and those matches went just 15, 15, 15, and 16 total match games.

Paolini has done well to reach this final, most notably defeating Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals, but particularly with that lopsided head-to-head record, it's hard to see her hanging with a revitalized Swiatek. Tennis Abstract projects a 74.3% win probability for Iga, which might even be selling her short in what ought to be a comfortable win in straight sets, leading to the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.