3 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Bills at Ravens

Early in the season, the hope is that primetime on Sunday is filled with a true heavyweight fight. That's absolutely the case in Week 4.

Two excellent candidates to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC will collide as the Buffalo Bills visit the Baltimore Ravens in Charm City.

Baltimore is still making up ground on an 0-2 start, surviving a late flurry from the Dallas Cowboys to avoid an 0-3 death knell. Meanwhile, Buffalo appears they could be the best team in the NFL if a +64 point differential in three games is any indication.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's edition of Sunday Night Football.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Bills at Ravens

Bills +2.5 (-110)

While my colleague Jim Sannes is leaping to the Bills' moneyline in this spot, it's really hard to make a case to lay 2.5 with the home side.

Through three weeks, Buffalo is numberFire's top overall team in the NFL, ranking second in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. They've overcome injuries on defense to hold those rankings, yet some are a bit hesitant about their last two opponents inflating those metrics.

Baltimore is still sixth in the overall rankings, but they're carrying nF's eighth-worst defensive efficiency. That's especially the case through the air, allowing 0.25 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back thus far, which is fourth-worst in the NFL. That's disastrous with the metric's leader at quarterback, Josh Allen (0.60), coming to town.

In a close game, it's worth noting Justin Tucker is just 5-for-8 on kicks this year. That's another trend in the favor of this bet, which seems solid on principle to take the points behind the more efficient quarterback and defense.

Over 7.5 Points in the First Quarter (-104)

These two teams have been buzzsaws in the first period with dynamic quarterbacks that are completely healthy. This line is perplexing.

Baltimore has posted 8.0 points in the first quarter this season, outdoing Buffalo (6.7) by a smidge. Those are both top-eight marks in football. Nonetheless, those median expectations would smash this line, and there is reason to believe they can come through here.

In addition to their own weak defense, the Ravens are a very different offense than the perimeter units we've seen the Bills handle so far, attacking short and over the middle at top-three rates in the league. That could be a significant changeup for the Mafia with so many injuries at safety and linebacker.

A meeting of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson reeks of a "last team to touch the ball wins" environment, and it could start early.

Each Team to Score 1+ Touchdown in Each Half (+118)

One of the reasons these teams are so good at scoring early? They get six instead of three.

The Bills have a superb red zone offense with Allen. They've gotten to the red zone 4.3 times per game thus far (second in the NFL) and cashed 76.9% of those opportunities into touchdowns (also second in the NFL). Buffalo has scored at least one touchdown in each half of the entire season.

Baltimore has only missed out scoring in one half this season, which came in Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders' stingy defense. They're 10th in the NFL at converting red zone trips to touchdowns (60.0%) rate, and they get there 3.3 times per game (also 10th).

While it seems the Ravens are the ones to jeopardize this bet, they're also 59.3% implied to win the game at FanDuel. I prefer to back an "over" sort of environment in this game of elite quarterbacks, but the adjusted pace and pass rates here aren't stellar. Possessions could be scarce when it comes to hitting the over, but these two teams do a great job of capitalizing on what chances they get.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.