4 Best Bets for NFL Week 4

The phrase "wrong team favored" can be a bit over-used when it comes to betting the NFL.

Since the start of last year, the team that was favored at kickoff has won 65.5% of all games, including the postseason. That equates to a moneyline of about -190.

So most of the time, the wrong team won't be favored. Bookmakers are pretty good at what they do.

I do think we get some exceptions this week, though.

This week, there are five teams with a moneyline of +110 or longer in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds who my model views as at least a slim favorite. I don't necessarily agree with all of those, but there are a couple deserving of our attention.

Let's dive into those first before outlining a couple totals that also stand out to me for Week 4.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks: Week 4

Bills at Ravens

Bills' Moneyline (+112)

Frankly, I'm a bit surprised this hasn't moved more since the Buffalo Bills' Monday night thrashing of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills were in the +115 to +120 range to beat the Baltimore Ravens mid-day Monday, and they're still sitting at +112.

I think there's value in that number.

That's not a knock on the Ravens, either. Their offense has absolutely cooked on early downs this year, and their late-down numbers look better once you adjust for schedule.

It's just that the Bills are really freaking good.

By my numbers, the Bills now lead the league in early-down passing efficiency and are third in that category on the ground. That's while leading the league in early-down pass defense after you adjust for schedule.

I don't know how they're doing this, given offseason changeover and in-season injuries they've sustained on defense. But who am I to doubt Josh Allen and a Sean McDermott defense?

My model has the Bills favored by 1.7 even with this game being in Baltimore. I just think the Ravens' defense needs more time to gel before we view them as being in Buffalo's tier, allowing me to agree with the model and back the Bills outright.

Saints at Falcons

Saints' Moneyline (+110)

The New Orleans Saints were frustrating last week as they failed to capitalize on several key Jalen Hurts turnovers in a 15-12 loss. The offense seemed half a tick off, and it led to their first loss of the season.

I think they get back on track against the Atlanta Falcons.

Even including that loss, the Saints are still the third-best overall offense (after adjusting for schedule), per numberFire's metrics, and the second-best passing offense. Had Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed been able to connect on a couple crucial drops last week, those numbers would look even better.

As for the Falcons, they're really struggling both to run the football and convert late in the down. They rank 30th, by my numbers, in late-down success rate after you adjust for schedule, ahead of just the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers. The defense has done its job in consecutive tough matchups, but the offense isn't where it needs to be yet.

Add this all together, and I've got the Saints as 2.1-point favorites. With the moneyline at +110, I'm willing to ride with them one more time and hope they don't let me down again.

Patriots at 49ers

Total Over 39.5 Points (-110)

My model tends to love the over for San Francisco 49ers games. This is the whopping 19th time it has recommended it since the start of last year.

Across the first 18 instances, the over hit 10 times (55.6%). So while it's a little odd the over keeps popping, at least it has been profitable thus far.

I understand why this is happening, too. Even while dealing with loads of injuries, the 49ers are still second in my model's offensive power rankings based on just data from this year. They haven't had Christian McCaffrey in any of those games, and in the one game they played without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy's efficiency numbers were still really good.

The matchup is tougher this week with the New England Patriots in town, but the Pats' defense has been more good than great thus far. I think they can move the ball on offense.

On defense, Javon Hargrave is now done for the year, which could allow the Patriots' ground game to get back on track. With the Patriots not needing to contribute much for us to get an over here, that could be enough.

So, yes, I'm concerned the model keeps telling me to bet the over for 49ers games. But again, it has worked to an extent thus far, and I subjectively agree with it in this specific spot. A total of 39.5 is just too low for this offensive system regardless of opponent.

Chiefs at Chargers

Total Over 39.5 Points (-110)

The Los Angeles Chargers are likely to be without both starting tackles here, and we don't know for sure whether Justin Herbert will play.

Even with those injuries baked in, I still think this total is too low.

Part of that is a bet against a yet-untested Chargers defense. The quarterbacks they've faced this year are Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, and Justin Fields. They still rate out well once you account for that, but they will get a downgrade this week with Derwin James suspended and Joey Bosa banged up.

Additionally, their backup quarterback situation is a lot better this year with Case Keenum than it was last year under Easton Stick.

As for the Kansas City Chiefs, they've looked disjointed so far, but they've still managed to put up 27, 26, and 22 points thus far. Their implied total here is 23.5, so we don't need them to light it up to get an over. I think that gives us wiggle room to back the over despite the Chargers' injuries.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.