3 Best Bets and Predictions for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

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The College Football Playoff quarterfinals will kick off the new year as four New Year's Six bowl games will be on show. The Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos will ring in the New Year on Tuesday, followed by a triple header on New Year's Day. The top four seeds all come off bye and will get their first crack at the playoffs while their opponents are all building momentum following first-round wins.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Picks

No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 3 Boise State Broncos

Penn State Over 33.5 Points (-112)

The quarterfinals feature two games with double-digit favorites, including Penn State tabbed as 11.5-point favorites over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. According to NET EPA per play, the Broncos are the worst team of this 12-team playoff by a landslide, ranking 38th in the category. For comparison, the Clemson Tigers tout the second-worst mark at 17th.

With that said, Boise State has plenty of concerns headed into New Year's Eve's matchup. Its defense is alarming, sitting 62nd in EPA allowed per play. Opponents have averaged 7.6 yards per passing attempt (bottom 39% for defense) and 256.6 passing yards per game (bottom 16%) against the Broncos. Additionally, BSU is 53rd in EPA allowed per drop back compared to 36th against the run.

While Penn State carries a 56.8% rush-play rate (top 25%), it also logs 8.6 yards per passing attempt (top 8%) and ranks second in EPA per drop back. Quarterback Drew Allar also sports an 85.5 player grade and 82.2 passing grade, per Pro Football Focus.

The Nittany Lions' offense has also been red hot, averaging 39.7 points per game (PPG) over their last three games. Two of these opponents were even in the top 11 of EPA allowed per play.

We've heard this a million times: the Group of Five can't hang with the big boys. While Boise State has enjoyed an excellent season in the Mountain West and did give the Oregon Ducks a run for their money early in the season, there's still plenty of concern in this matchup. Top to bottom, the Nittany Lions have the far more talented roster.

The Broncos have frankly been one of the worst passing defenses in the nation, and Penn State boast great passing efficiency across the board. Even in BSU's 37-34 loss to Oregon, the Ducks still racked up 11.6 yards per passing attempt. Maybe Ashton Jeanty and this offense can keep it close, but I have little to no confidence in this defense against Penn State, who has the fifth-shortest odds to win the national championship (+500).

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks

Ohio State Over 29.5 Points (+100)

Let's move to perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the quarterfinals in a rematch between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks. After dismantling the Tennessee Volunteers 42-17, Ohio State now holds the second-shortest odds to win it all (+330). Despite a 32-31 loss to Oregon in the regular season, the Buckeyes are 2.5-point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Frankly, I could see this game going either way. While OSU is first in NET EPA per play compared to the Ducks at fifth, we also can't overlook the Buckeyes' problems in the secondary in the last matchup as UO erupted for 32 points. If we have one lesson from the previous meeting, it was that both offenses had a ton of success.

The quarterbacks shined as Will Howard totaled 326 passing yards and 9.3 yards per passing attempt while Dillon Gabriel logged 341 passing yards and 10.0 yards per passing attempt. Considering each quarterback's success, another duel could be imminent. However, among the two defenses, Oregon looks far more vulnerable as it is ninth in EPA allowed per play while Ohio State ranks first.

The Ducks have faced three teams in the top 20 of EPA per play, and those squads combined for an average of 34.0 PPG. With each team going over 30 points in this split, why would we not like the Buckeyes' chances of lighting up the scoreboard?

Ohio State still managed to light up Oregon's secondary in the last meeting, and this was when perhaps its best offensive lineman Josh Simmons was carted in the second quarter. With a makeshift line, Howard still got enough time to cook. Despite several injuries on the O-line, the unit had one of its best performances of the season against Tennessee. Plus, Howard has now posted passing grades of 85.0 or better in four of the last five.

Most importantly, OSU's play-calling got aggressive in the first round of the playoffs, force feeding its talented receivers. After limiting Tennessee's talented pass rush with two prospects in the top 60 of NFL Mock Draft Data Base's 2025 Consensus Big Board, I have some faith in the Buckeyes' pass protection as the Ducks feature more NFL talent on the defensive line in Derrick Harmon (29th) and Jordan Burch (68th).

Following improved play calling against the Volunteers, I'm expecting another big day out of Ohio State's offense. This is still one of college football's best offenses, Howard has mostly played well over the last month (excluding the dreaded loss to Michigan), and Oregon's defense has been weak against quality offenses.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs

Notre Dame Moneyline (-105)

Ohio State-Oregon isn't the only game drawing hype as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Bulldogs will cap the quarterfinals with a meeting in the Sugar Bowl.

Notre Dame was actually favored in the hypothetical odds prior to the first round. Once this matchup was set, the odds quickly swung in Georgia's favor, and the Bulldogs are now 1.5-point favorites. The majority of bets continue to back UGA as 68% of moneyline picks and 63% of spread picks on FanDuel Sportsbook are backing the Dawgs.

However, this is probably chalked up to the brands. Georgia has won two national titles over the last few years, and Notre Dame carries a perception of never winning the big game. I'm looking for the Fighting Irish to put this narrative to bed on New Year's Day.

Simply from an efficiency standpoint, ND is the better team, ranking fourth in NET EPA per play compared to UGA at eighth. Of course, the biggest concern for the Bulldogs is not having Carson Beck, who is absent following UCL surgery. This means Gunner Stockton will get the start. Not only is this the first start of his career, but Stockton has attempted only 41 passes since 2023.

Georgia has leaned on the pass with a 55.3% pass-play rate this season (top 16%). This will probably scale back with Stockton starting, especially when Notre Dame gives up the fewest EPA per drop back. When Stockton was inserted into the SEC Championship, the Dawgs kept it simple as the inexperienced QB logged 4.4 yards per passing attempt while they touted a 55.2% rush-play rate (44.7% this season).

This one's pretty a simple. The Fighting Irish are already viewed as the more efficient team, and that's likely not considering Beck is now out for UGA. Additionally, the Bulldogs are tracking toward being a one-dimensional offense, and Notre Dame is already a tough cookie to crack by giving up the third-fewest PPG (13.8) and fourth-fewest yards per play (4.4).

On the other side of the ball, Georgia's defense has looked vulnerable in the secondary at times, giving up 224.6 passing yards per game (bottom 48%). The key to pulling off an upset will likely be Riley Leonard, who has posted PFF passing grades of 76.0 or better in five of the last six.

numberFire's college football game projections have the Irish winning 24.0-22.4, and College Football Nerds' prediction model has 21.9-17.2 in favor of Notre Dame.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.