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3 Best Bets and Predictions for Lions at Texans on Sunday Night Football

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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3 Best Bets and Predictions for Lions at Texans on Sunday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got the obvious spreads and totals, but plentiful other options exist, as well.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Sunday night game as the Detroit Lions visit the Houston Texans.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Lions at Texans Betting Picks

Lions First Half Spread -2.5 (-115)

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For the full game, my model has the Lions favored by 4.2, so there's not enough value for me to lay the 3.5 at -110.

But a slow start for the Texans is a reasonable expectation with everything going on with them.

In addition to the uncertainty around Nico Collins, Tank Dell was added to the injury report on Friday with a back injury. Late-week injuries are especially difficult as they occur after the gameplan is installed, forcing teams to adapt on the fly.

When you add in the potential for the Texans to just generally struggle, I think laying the 2.5 here is reasonable, and it does leave the door open for the Texans to improve as the game goes along.

Lions First Drive Result Any Other (+550)

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With a lot of teams, the "Any Other" category here would largely be a turnover. That's a possibility against a feisty Texans defense.

But lumping in a turnover on downs is what pushes me over the edge here.

The Lions have already gone for it on fourth down 12 times this year, an average of 1.5 times per game. They've gotten it seven times, which wouldn't aid us here, but it's still a non-zero chance.

In the Lions' eight opening drives this season, they've scored three touchdowns and punted three times with zero field goals. The others were an interception and a turnover on downs, both of which would qualify for this market.

Not having Will Anderson for the Texans does lower the odds of a strip sack helping us cash, but I still think we have enough avenues to a win to justify a look at +550.

Texans First Scoring Play Field Goal (+140)

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The Texans have had a bunch of issues this year. Red-zone offense is definitely one of them, presenting some value in this number.

The Texans have had 30 red-zone trips this year. They've scored on 17 of them (56.7%), the 15th-best rate in the league, according to Pro Football Reference. This has led to the team kicking 21 field goals versus 20 touchdowns scored overall.

This problem is likely to get worse with all the pressure they've allowed to get to C.J. Stroud. Sacks kill drives, which has contributed to Ka'imi Fairbairn's making multiple field goals in five straight games.

Obviously, this dynamic shifts when we're talking "first" score as it's less likely to be in a two-minute drill when the team is forced to settle for three. But the Texans' first score has been a field goal in 44.4% of games this year, above the implied odds of 41.7%, and some of the offensive issues could continue to shove the needle that direction.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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