Even in a single NFL game, we've got boundless options for betting.

In addition to things such as the spread and total, we've got derivative markets and much more. Which of those stand out for Week 11's Thursday Night Football game between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here's where I'm seeing value in this NFC East battle.

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Commanders at Eagles Betting Picks

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Commanders' Moneyline (+168)

Now that you're getting +3.5 at just -105, you can definitely justify taking the points.

But there's some risk in taking the Commanders, and I think we can better offset that volatility with the moneyline, instead.

That volatility comes more from the Eagles' defense than anything else. After a string of impressive showings, they're now up to fifth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings. If they're going to play like that kind of unit going forward, then they'll be a tough team to beat.

I'm still a bit skeptical of that, which is why I'm willing to bet the Commanders. The past five starting quarterbacks the Eagles have faced are Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Cooper Rush. The showing against Burrow was genuinely impressive; the rest aren't nearly as big of a test as what Philly will get against Jayden Daniels.

The Eagles deserve to be favored here, and my model's NFL Week 11 spread and total predictions view them as such. But it's a much tighter spread for me, allowing me to take the Commanders' moneyline and hope volatility breaks in our favor.

Alternate Total Over 50.5 (+114)

This is a similar spot to the moneyline: you can take the baseline over 48.5 at -110. It's not a bad bet by my numbers.

But again, with some fear around the Eagles' defense, I'd rather get more reward for the risk I'm taking, pushing me to the alternate market.

My model has this total at 49.75 points. If you look at other games in a similar range by that model, they've gone over 50.5 points 48.3% of the time. The implied odds here are 46.7%, giving us 1.5 percentage points of wiggle room. I can live with that.

Three things push me this direction. First, both offenses are throwing heat right now. The Commanders and Eagles rank 2nd and 11th, respectively, in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

Second, both offenses are healthy. The Eagles activated left tackle Jordan Mailata off of injured reserve, and the Commanders will get running back Brian Robinson back off a two-game absence. Those two are legit difference-makers.

Third, with the NFL's new kickoff rules, touchdowns can lead to more touchdowns. Better field position on a kickoff means increased odds we see a cascading effect where scoring plays stack on top of each other.

So, again, I don't mind if you want to take the baseline number. But this slightly different market safeguards us from some of the risk and still gets us a win on a key number of 51. That's enough for me to take the plunge.

Eagles' First Drive Result: Touchdown (+170)

It has become a well-known trend this year that the Eagles suck on their opening drives. They're averaging just 1.6 points per first quarter on the season, which ranks 30th in the league.

Either the team simply can't operate on their opening script or there is some variance at play. I'm willing to bet on it being due to a small sample.

On paper, the Eagles should be able to move the ball tonight. As mentioned, their now-healthy 11th-ranked offense will face a Commanders team that ranks 26th by numberFire's metrics. Washington has benefited from a plus schedule of late, which has made their surface numbers look better than they should.

Anecdotally, the Eagles should be the fresher team, too. They were able to pull their starters in the fourth quarter last Sunday while the Commanders had to push all four quarters. If the Commanders come out flat, that'll tilt the scales toward the Eagles.

It's fair to be skeptical of the Eagles' coaching staff, given all that has happened there in the past year. Maybe that means the early struggles are legitimate. I just have too much faith in their talent on that side of the ball to expect this trend to continue.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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