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3 Best Bets and Player Props for Lions at Packers, Week 9

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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3 Best Bets and Player Props for Lions at Packers, Week 9

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Detroit Lions take on the Green Bay Packers? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out. Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Lions at Packers Betting Picks

Packers Over 10.5 First Half Points (-110)

Before we get too deep into the lines, injuries will play a major key in this matchup. The Packers' injury report is loaded, including quarterback Jordan Love (groin), running back Josh Jacobs (ankle), left tackle Rasheed Walker (knee), left guard Elgton Jenkins (glute), center Josh Myers (wrist), cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee), safety Evan Williams (hamstring), and defensive tackles Kenny Clark (toe/shoulder) and Devonte Wyatt (ankle).

Myers, Alexander, and Williams look like the biggest question marks as all three players did not practice this week, including Friday's action. That's bad news for Green Bay's secondary, but the offense should still have enough -- especially with Love practicing on Thursday and Friday.

numberFire's game projections have the Packers scoring 25.6 points, and they carry a 23.5 point prop. Yet, Green Bay's first half point prop sits at only 10.5 points.

1st Half Packers Total Points

Over
Nov 3 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Packers have gotten off to quick starts in three consecutive games, averaging 17.0 points per game (PPG) in the first half. Assuming that Love plays, Green Bay holds the 10th-best schedule-adjusted pass offense while logging 8.0 yards per passing attempt (7th-most). Meanwhile, Detroit gives up 247.6 passing yards per game (sixth-most).

However, this can be put into question since the Lions have the third-best adjusted pass defense. The run defense looks more vulnerable as the 12th-worst adjusted unit while surrendering 4.7 yards per rushing attempt (11th-most). The Pack can still take advantage of this with the fifth-highest run play rate paired with 0.78 rushing yards over expectation per carry from Josh Jacobs -- who's also tracking to be active.

Detroit's defense started the season off fast by allowing only 8.2 PPG in the first half over the first six games. However, this looks shaky after allowing 14 points in about one quarter of play to the Tennessee Titans last week, who carry the fourth-worst adjusted offense.

Lions -2.5 (-120)

While I like the Packers' chances of scoring early, this doesn't mean the Lions are doomed to fail. I still like Detroit to go on the road and cover.

Two categories have me very worried about Green Bay. First up, the Packers have the eighth-worst red zone scoring rate at 50.0%. It hasn't gotten much better during the four-game winning streak either (53.3%).

Detroit is allowing the ninth-lowest red zone scoring rate (47.4%) and has allowed only a 28.6% red zone scoring rate over its last three games. The same worry is there on the other side of the ball, for the Lions carry the 7th-highest red zone scoring rate while Green Bay allows the 13th-highest red zone scoring percentage.

Spread

Nov 3 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Along with dominating the red zone, winning the turnover battle looks likely for Detroit. Love is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL (nine), and that's with missing Week 2 and Week 3 due to injury. The Packers average 1.5 giveaways per game (ninth-most), but fortunately, the defense is forcing 2.4 turnovers per contest (the most).

The Lions excel in both categories, though, with 0.7 giveaways per game (fifth-fewest) and 2.1 takeaways per contest (second-most). This has led to the top turnover margin in football (+1.4).
If Detroit is winning the red zone and turnover battle, I'm not sure how they won't cover. The evidence keeps stacking up as the Lions also feature the top third-down defense in the NFL while Green Bay has converted only 7 of its past 21 third downs (33.3%). Detroit is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) compared to the Packers' 4-4 record.

Jared Goff 225+ Passing Yards (+100)

A successful day from Jared Goff would pair well with the Lions to cover.

As mentioned, Green Bay's secondary could be in the crosshairs due to Alexander's and Williams' injuries. The Packers' star cornerback was out Week 4 and Week 5, and in those games, the defense gave up 267.5 passing yards per game.

However, Week 5's result against the Los Angeles Rams doesn't hold much weight since Matthew Stafford logged 45 passing attempts for 5.8 yards per attempt., and the Rams didn't have Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp active. In Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings racked up 275 passing yards and 9.8 yards per passing attempt. This looks like a better insight of what could be ahead.

Of course, the Vikings have a stud top wideout in Justin Jefferson, similar to Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown. If Jaire is out, Green Bay will likely struggle to guard the Lions' top target.

Goff's passing prop is set at only 220.5, which opens up even more value with some alt lines. He logged only 85 passing yards last week, but much of this was due to short fields, an absurd performance from special teams, and a 35-14 halftime lead. Goff logged 295.7 passing yards per contest over the three games prior to Week 8.

Jared Goff - Alt Passing Yds
Jared Goff 225+ Yards

Detroit's signal-caller touts 0.16 expected points added per drop back this season. He's more than good enough to take advantage of a injured-riddled secondary.

Our DFS projections have Goff in line for 225.3 passing yards on Sunday. If correct, the projection holds a 51.7% implied probability for at least 225 passing yards compared to the current +100 line's 50.0% implied probability.

There's more than enough to back this pick, from Amon-Ra's promising matchup against a thin secondary to Goff's production prior to Week 8.


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Which bets stand out to you for this week's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the lines for each contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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