3 Best Bets and Player Props for Chiefs at Bills, Week 11
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Chiefs at Bills Betting Picks
Total Over 46.5 (-108)
Total Match Points
Both of these defenses are solid, so I understand why the total is where it's at.
I just can't get there with the two offenses involved.
My model's spread and total prediction has this total sniffing 50. That's because the Bills rank third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings for the full season while the Chiefs have been on the rise since adding DeAndre Hopkins.
In Hopkins' three games, Patrick Mahomes has posted two of his three most efficient games of the season. He dipped a bit last week, but that's to be expected against the Denver Broncos, who have the ability to limit Hopkins. The Bills may struggle a bit more in that regard.
We haven't gotten to see the Chiefs in many shootouts recently, but I do think we've got the building blocks for one here.
Josh Allen Any Time Touchdown (+140)
For as long as the tush push is legal, +140 is going to be too long for a Josh Allen any time touchdown.
Since the start of last year, Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in 15 of 27 regular-season games. That's a 55.6% rate, well clear of the 41.7% implied odds here.
Of course, you can easily point out that this mark is at just 30.0% in 2024, specifically. But they've shown a willingness to have Allen sneak in short-yardage situations, so I don't mind lumping last year's data in as relevant, as well.
Of all the touchdown bets on the board, Allen's my favorite as things stand.
DeAndre Hopkins Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)
DeAndre Hopkins - Total Receptions
Two key factors are pushing me toward this Hopkins reception prop.
First is volume. Hopkins has nine and five targets in his two full games, tallying 12 total receptions. He failed to go over this number last week, but that's understandable with Patrick Surtain II defending him on 64.3% of his routes, per Next Gen Stats.
Second is the kind of targets Hopkins is getting. He's operating in the Rashee Rice role where he gets high-percentage targets close to the line of scrimmage. That's why Hopkins has caught 82.4% of his targets from Mahomes thus far, and we should expect that number to remain lofty.
I don't mind Hopkins' yardage prop, which is more than reasonable at 51.5. I just think this market better encapsulates Hopkins' current role where he's getting so many gimme looks that may not generate a ton of yards.
Opt-in to the Gronk Profit Spike and apply a 30% Profit Boost to an Anytime Touchdown Scorer wager on any NFL game happening November 17th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which bets stand out to you for this week's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the lines for each contest.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.