3 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Friday 1/17/25

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Friday.

To add to the intrigue, FanDuel is offering a special promo for all customers betting on the Australian Open!

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You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button. You’ll then be rewarded a 30% Profit Boost Token to use for a 3+ leg parlay on any Australian Open matches happening January 17th to 19th. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Australian Open Tennis Third Round Betting Picks for Friday

Emma Navarro vs. Ons Jabeur

Jabeur ML (+100)

Ons Jabeur is coming off a rough 2024 season where she went just 16-14 and saw her ranking plummet after she was forced to end her season early and skip the US Open.

However, Jabeur has shown promise in the early going, owning a 6-2 record in this new campaign while winning both of her Australian Open matches in straight sets. Although an asthma issue she suffered through in her last match could be cause for concern, that fact she was able to push through and still win without dropping a set is a positive. Perhaps she's finally getting closer to being the player who's been a Grand Slam finalist three times.

Emma Navarro is fresh off a breakout year that included deep runs to the Wimbledon quarterfinals and US Open semifinals. It's been a rocky start to this season, though, as she went just 1-2 in two tune-up tournaments, and both her Australian Open matches have gone to a final set.

She very nearly didn't even make it out of the first round, surviving in a 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-5 win over Peyton Stearns. Overall, Navarro has already been on court for over five hours, whereas Jabeur is still below two hours.

While Tennis Abstract predictably favors Navarro, who's clearly enjoyed more success than Jabeur over the last 52 weeks, it's intriguing that Massey Ratings has it flipped, projecting a 57% win probability for Ons.

Although there's some risk here if Jabeur has another another asthma flare-up, there's a chance we're buying low on the former world No. 2, which is worth taking a chance on at plus money.

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Over 40.5 Total Match Games (-112)

This matchup looks destined to go four or five sets, and chances are it's the latter.

While neither player has gone to a final set yet, it hasn't been an easy road to the third round for either.

Ben Shelton won his first-round match over Brandon Nakashima in straight sets, but it easily could've gone longer, as the final score was 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5. He then snuck by Pablo Carreno Busta in the next match 6-3, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-4.

Meanwhile, Lorenzo Musetti has already had four sets go to a tiebreak, defeating Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-3 in the first round and then Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3), 7-6(6), 6-2 in the second round.

Both players are playing a lot of tight sets, and each one has already gone over 40.5 total match games without even reaching a fifth set yet.

Tennis Abstract ranks Shelton 26th in hard court Elo rating while Musetti is just 37th, and their respective records on the surface favor the American. However, Musetti is 2-0 in their head-to-head, and that includes a win on hard courts last year in Miami, further suggesting he will be a thorn in Shelton's side.

These two should deliver a back-and-forth clash, and if they mix in a tiebreak or two, we might not even need a final set to reach the over.

Madison Keys vs. Danielle Collins

Collins ML (+205)

Danielle Collins made some headlines by turning heel in the last round, blowing kisses to a booing pro-Australian crowd after defeating the last Australian woman in the draw and then doubling down by clapping back in her post-match interview.

It made for some good theater, and chances are she'll have the crowd firmly against her when she faces fellow American Madison Keys tonight.

Keys has been on an absolute roll to begin this campaign, winning 9 of 10 matches. This includes a title run at Adelaide where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final.

While Collins (world No. 11) is technically ranked higher than Keys (No. 14), Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings tell a different story, as Keys ranks 9th on the site while Collins is 36th. Worse yet, Danielle's hard court Elo rating drops her even further back (41st).

Despite all that, the 31-year-old Collins is coming off a strong 2024 campaign that was originally supposed to be her last, and she's likely getting dinged in the ratings for an uncharacteristically poor finish that included four straight hard-court losses. At one point, she went on a 15-match win streak that included beating Elena Rybakina to win the Miami Open. We should remember that she was the Australian Open runner-up just a few years ago in 2022, too, so a deep run can't be ruled out.

Collins is clearly playing loose with nothing to lose if she's freely taking shots at the crowd, and she probably views this as a bonus season after pushing back her retirement plans. We've seen players thrive while playing the villain before, and she could very well do the same.

Ultimately, Tennis Abstract projects a 66% win probability for Keys, but she's getting about 72% implied win odds as a -255 favorite, suggesting the market might be too high on her. Further, Massey Ratings forecasts an even closer 62% win chance for Madison.

With that in mind, there could be value in backing the underdog and seeing if the feisty Collin can feed off the crowd in an antagonist role again.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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