2025 Southwest Stakes Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

The second race of the Arkansas series of Kentucky Derby points races happens Saturday, January 25: the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. The race covers 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and it drew a field of 10 to compete for a $1 million purse. The top five finishers also get 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby.

The series of prep races at Oaklawn began January 4 in the Smarty Jones, a race won by Coal Battle. It continues on February 22 with the Rebel (G2), and concludes on March 29 with the Arkansas Derby (G1). The Southwest, like all the races on this spur of the Derby trail, is open to three-year-olds. Oaklawn’s series has been a live set of preps for the Triple Crown series in recent years.

Most of the runners in the 2025 Southwest are up-and-coming types: the only graded-stakes winner to date is likely favorite Gaming for trainer Bob Baffert, who always comes to Arkansas loaded. Gaming won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last year and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). However, he will have to bounce back from a disappointment in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) last out. He will also have to face some exciting newcomers like buzz maiden winner Patch Adams and recent allowance winner Sandman, a seven-figure two-year-old.

In 2024 the winner of the Southwest, Mystik Dan, went on to win the Kentucky Derby. That made him the second Southwest winner to take the Run for the Roses, after Smarty Jones in 2024. Other important winners of the Southwest include Belmont winner Essential Quality (2021), 2013 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Secret Circle (2012), 2007 champion older male Lawyer Ron (2006), and 1997 champion sprinter Smoke Glacken (1997).

Southwest Stakes 2025 Information

• Race Date: Saturday, January 25, 2025
• Track: Oaklawn Park
• Post Time: 4:10 p.m. Central Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Southwest Stakes Odds

This is the field for the 2025 Southwest Stakes, including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line prices as published by Oaklawn. The race attracted a field of 10, including enough up-and-coming contenders to make it a handicapping challenge.

Southwest Stakes Prep Results

All ten entrants in the Southwest come out of different races.

Only two horses last raced in graded-stakes company. Gaming was most recently third as the odds-on favorite in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on December 14, beaten by Journalism. Tiztastic, the only other stakes winner in the field, was last seen finishing third behind First Resort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on November 30.

Three others come out of ungraded stakes company, though each of them were Kentucky Derby points races. Speed King was a close second behind Coal Battle in the Springboard Mile at Remington on December 13. Render Judgment chased home Built in the Gun Runner on December 21, finishing a well-beaten third. Bon Temps, despite being a maiden, was last seen running fourth behind Coal Battle in the Smarty Jones, making him the only horse from Oaklawn’s first points race of the year to return in the second.

Two more come out of victories in first-level allowances at Oaklawn. Sandman rallied from midfield to score in a one-mile race on December 13, looking strong after a freshening and a drop from graded company at Churchill. Monet’s Magic needed five starts to break his maiden, but followed that up with a next-out allowance win at Oaklawn on December 29, rallying from well off the pace to win over a muddy track.

The other three were last seen in maiden special weight company. Patch Adams dazzled second-out at Churchill Downs on November 30, romping by 10 ½ lengths in a seven-furlong sprint. American Promise needed six tries to graduate, but wired the field in a 1 1/16-mile race in the Oaklawn mud on December 29—winning by 1 ½ lengths over Publisher, who is also in the Southwest.

Southwest Stakes Contenders

These are the contenders in the 2025 Southwest at Oaklawn Park, organized by post position:

1. Gaming: Gaming is the only graded-stakes winner in the field, and his pace-versatility is a plus, but he still has something to prove at two turns. To be fair, he has shown some ability at a route: in his first two-turn start, he stalked the pace and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind stablemate Citizen bull. However, he weakened considerably when a well-beaten third in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and he may have to deal with traffic from the inside. He is dangerous in the sense of his proven class and his trainer Bob Baffert’s strong Oaklawn record. But, he may be an underlay at the distance.
2. Publisher: One of two maidens in the field, he ran his best effort yet when second to American Promise in a maiden special weight on December 29 at Oaklawn. He doesn’t have to drop that far back to run well, and though he has yet to win, he has not missed the board in any of his four races. Of course, he faces deeper company this time around, and he’ll be a deserving long shot as a result. But, trainer Steve Asmussen isn’t one to run random maidens in Derby preps—if he can take another step up from his race last out, it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to track the pace and get a share.
3. Monet’s Magic: It took him five tries to get his diploma, but he rides a two-race win streak into the Southwest after wins in a 1 1/16-mile maiden at Churchill and then an allowance mile over the Oaklawn mud almost a month ago. He has proven he can pass horses, and do so at Oaklawn to boot. The concern is, he hasn’t put up a race quite as fast as many of the top contenders in this race have. But, if he can take a modest step forward he could run on late for a piece of exotics at a price.
4. Tiztastic: A stakes winner on the lawn at Kentucky Downs last year, he has hit the board in a pair of Kentucky Derby points races, the Street Sense (G3) and the Kentucky Jockey Club. He never looked the winner in either of those races, and the speed-friendliness of routes at Oaklawn raises questions about Tiztastic getting all the way this time, either. But he is consistent, he has shown he can show up going two turns on the dirt, and he is an interesting prospect for underneath shares in the Southwest.
5. Render Judgment: Kenny McPeek won this race last year with Mystik Dan and returns with Render Judgment this year. He graduated second-out at Churchill, trying 1 1/16 miles for the first time, meaning a win at the distance is a plus. He was well beaten in both graded-stakes starts since, though a bad start gives him some excuse in the Gun Runner last out, where he was a well-beaten third behind Built. Blinkers could get him closer to the pace, and McPeek and jockey Emmanuel Esquivel have been a strong pair lately.
6. Sandman: A buzz horse since the seven-figure tag was signed in Ocala last year, he tried graded-stakes company twice last year, with his best result being a well-beaten third, 5 ¼ lengths behind Sovereignty, in the Street Sense. He returned to win an allowance in his first start since that, showing he could handle the Oaklawn track. the running style he showed in that race could be quite good for this one as well, assuming horses who sit a couple of lengths off the pace get a fair shake.
7. Patch Adams: The post draw didn’t help this son of Into Mischief, who may be better off if he had drawn outside the other speed, not inside. However, he has been able to battle on or near the pace in both of his starts, and he figured it out big time in a 10 ½-length blowout win last out. It won’t be an easy ask, especially stretching to two turns for the first time, though he has every chance to stretch out since he is by Into Mischief from the family of Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed; in fact, his dam is a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles.
8. American Promise: It took this D. Wayne Lukas trainee six tries to break his maiden—he finally did it last out, the first time he was able to just lead at every call. It was a good race, but it is highly questionable whether he’ll be able to get that same kind of trip in this field, especially with Speed King outside and Patch Adams and even Gaming inside. He has talent, but the fact that he looks like one-way speed against tough foes makes him suspect.
9. Bon Temps: D. Wayne Lukas is never afraid to take a shot. He took a shot with this one in the Smarty Jones, and though he had never even hit the board in two starts before that race, Bon Temps closed out the superfecta and snagged a few Kentucky Derby points. It was a decent first try at two turns, but now he faces an even deeper field and he has yet to run a race anywhere near as fast as he would need to win this. He’ll be a deserving long shot.
10. Speed King: He is an interesting wild card. He has early speed, which fits well at Oaklawn Park, though he may not quite outjump Patch Adams or American Promise. Still, he can harangue them from the outside, and his good second in the Springboard Mile (behind a horse who then proved himself at Oaklawn) means he has a shot to get a solid outside pressing trip. With upside in his third career start, he could be an interesting price horse.

Southwest Stakes Past Winners Past Performances

Looking over the last ten years of the Southwest Stakes, the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn has produced the most next-out Southwest winners of all races—and of the four who came from the Smarty Jones to Southwest glory, only one even hit the board in that prep. Far Right (2015) won it, but Super Steed (2019) was seventh, Silver Prospector (2020) was eighth, and Mystik Dan (2024) was fifth.

The only other race with more than one next-out Southwest winner over the last ten years is the Sham (G3), a now-discontinued early Kentucky Derby prep at Santa Anita. My Boy Jack (2018) came out of a third-place finish, and Newgrange (2022) won it.

Two others came out of different stakes races to come to Oaklawn and win the Southwest. Essential Quality (2021) won the race in his first start since taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) the year before. Suddenbreakingnews (2016) won after a second-place effort in the Springboard Mile at Remington.

Only two of the last ten winners came out of non-stakes races. One Liner (2017) came into the race out of a victory in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream. Arabian Knight (2023) was making his first start since a debut maiden win at Keeneland in November, making him the only Southwest winner in the last ten years to do so in his first try against winners.

Southwest Stakes Undercard

The Southwest Stakes is the 10th of 12 on Saturday’s card at Oaklawn. A Kentucky Oaks points race, the Martha Washington Stakes increased its purse to $300,000 for 2025 and will be run just before the Southwest. Other stakes on the card are the $150,000 King Cotton for older sprinters, the $150,000 Fifth Season for older milers, the $145,000 General MacArthur Overnight for older routers, and the $145,000 Bugler Overnight for older sprinters.

With three-year-old points races, stakes for older runners as well, and big fields throughout the day, Saturday at Oaklawn will be full of great betting opportunities. Stay tuned to FanDuel TV all day for the latest news and live footage of the races, and make sure to wager on the card at FanDuel!

Oaklawn Park History

Back in 1905, the Hot Springs Mayor declared a half-day holiday for the opening of Oaklawn Park, with over 3,000 people attending the track on its first day of racing. The holiday heralded the beginning of a tradition that has lasted for over a century!

Due to political issues, no racing took place at Oaklawn between 1907 and 1916, but after a sustained period of action, the now-famous Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 with a purse of $5,000 offered to entrants.

By 1952, Oaklawn could boast daily attendances of almost 8,000 people and an average daily handle of well over $400,000, figures which rose by the turn of the decade to 10,000 and $500,000, respectively, with the Arkansas Derby purse increasing to $50,000 by 1965.

The track continued to go from strength to strength, and during a 50-day meeting in 1970, an average of 11,000 people were attending daily, with over $43,000,000 wagered over the course of the meet.

In the mid-70s, Oaklawn gave birth to the Racing Festival of the South, with pari-mutuel wagering amounting to a cool $80,000,000 that season, and by the 80s, over a quarter of a million people were attending the festival each year. By then, the purse for the Arkansas Derby was up at $500,000, and a new single-day attendance record was set with 71,000 showing up to see Rampage win the big race in 1986.

Ten years later, Arkansas Derby day saw a total handle of over $10.5 million, and by the turn of the millennium, Oaklawn was still seeing increases in attendance and wagering, meaning the track stands as one of the best in the country at present.

Southwest Stakes FAQ

Q: When is the Southwest Stakes?

A: The 2025 Southwest Stakes will be run on Saturday, January 25 at 4:10 p.m. Central Standard Time. It is the 10th of 12 Oaklawn races on the day.

Q: Where is the Southwest Stakes?

A: It takes place at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Southwest Stakes?

A: Bob Baffert leads all trainers with six victories in the Southwest, most recently in 2023 with Arabian Knight. Baffert will attempt to extend that record with Gaming in 2025.

Q: Who is the favorite for the 2025 Southwest Stakes?

A: The 2-1 morning-line favorite is Gaming, a Grade 1 winner as a juvenile and also second behind stablemate Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Between his class and the fact that he is trained by Bob Baffert, expect him to hold favoritism, though watch for betting action of 5-2 second choice Patch Adams, a dazzling maiden winner for Brad Cox.

Q: Who is the best Southwest Stakes jockey?

A: Larry Snyder, Rafael Bejarano, and John Velazquez are all tied with three wins in the Southwest Stakes. Bejarano and Velazquez are still active. Velazquez is riding at Gulfstream for Pegasus World Cup day and will not be present for the Southwest, but Bejarano can take the record for his own if he wins with Ron Moquett trainee Speed King.

Q: Who won the 2024 Southwest Stakes?

A: Arkansas-owned Mystik Dan, who went on to win the Kentucky Derby, won the 2024 Southwest for trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. Hernandez is in Florida riding Mystik Dan in the Pegasus World Cup, but McPeek can win this race again in 2025 with Render Judgment, ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel.

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