2024 NFL Power Rankings Entering Week 12
The eleventh week of the NFL season is behind us, so let's check out our NFL Power Rankings -- which are supported by numberFire's nERD-based rankings -- as we look ahead to Week 12.
With only seven weeks left in the regular season, the playoff race is firmly on our radar. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans have all but clinched their respective divisions, with each group holding -1250 division odds or shorter heading into Week 12.
The Detroit Lions (-470 NFC North odds) and Philadelphia Eagles (-550 NFC East odds) are also in the driver's seat, albeit to a lesser degree.
The outlook starts to get pretty muddy when we check out the NFC West.
We have found ourselves in a world where the San Francisco 49ers (5-5) have a legitimate chance to miss the playoffs entirely (-210) despite NFC teams such as the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Chicago Bears all being practically out of playoff contention, too.
The Minnesota Vikings (8-2), Washington Commanders (7-4), and Green Bay Packers (7-3) are currently set up to claim the NFC Wild Card spots, and it's hard to make any arguments otherwise. That means the Niners might have to win the NFC West, a division they currently sit at the bottom of. It'll be all eyes on the 49ers and NFC West from here on out.
With that, let's dive into what else went on in Week 11 as we prepare for Week 12.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL Power Rankings (Week 12)
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
#32 | Carolina Panthers | -16.73 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#31 | Dallas Cowboys | -15.18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -13.96 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#29 | Las Vegas Raiders | -12.89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#28 | Cleveland Browns | -12.59 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#27 | New England Patriots | -9.28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#26 | Tennessee Titans | -7.81 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Any sliver of hope left for the New York Jets was finally put to rest on Sunday. A home loss to the Indianapolis Colts moved the Jets to 3-8 on the year, and the firing of GM Joe Douglas followed shortly thereafter.
The Seattle Seahawks (5-5) won a big boy game against the 49ers and sit third in an NFC West division that features two other 5-5 groups. The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) sit atop the division, but the 'Hawks have an exciting opportunity to change that with haste. Arizona will visit Seattle this weekend for a game that's listed as a near pick 'em. The Seahawks will then move on to a soft matchup against the Jets before meeting up with the Cardinals once again in Week 14. The Niners will play two brutal road games in the interim (at Packers, at Bills), so these next three weeks could be do or die for Seattle. Look for them to come out strong against Arizona's 26th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense this weekend.
Moneyline
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
#22 | Miami Dolphins | -2.25 | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#21 | Indianapolis Colts | -1.67 | 23.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
#20 | New Orleans Saints | -0.97 | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
#19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.50 | 35.9% | 27.9% | 0.1% |
#18 | Chicago Bears | -0.17 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#17 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.02 | 7.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
#16 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.16 | 11.3% | 9.4% | 0.2% |
What an unfortunate year to be a Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) fan. Sunday night's game against the Los Angeles Chargers turned out to be the most thrilling battle in Week 11, but it also marked the sixth time the Bengals have lost a one possession game this season. Luck is far from this team's side, and they head into their bye week with +440 playoff odds despite a pretty manageable remaining schedule. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins will be sorely missed if we don't get to see them in the postseason for the second straight year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 4-6 record may not screech NFC playoff potential, but they have a pretty awesome outlook all things considered. The Bucs were on bye in Week 11, which lended Mike Evans some extra time to heal from his hamstring injury. Evans was seen practicing on Monday and is targeting a return for this Sunday. More importantly, the Bucs will encounter an incredibly soft schedule from here on out. Save for a road date with the Chargers, Tampa Bay will solely face teams that have been limited to four wins or fewer. That includes two games against the Carolina Panthers, and meetings with the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Saints, and Cowboys.
Do the Atlanta Falcons need to watch their backs? We aren't that far removed from the days when things looked lovely in Atlanta. They entered Week 10 with a 6-3 record while the Saints were imploding and the Bucs were dealing with the losses of Evans and Chris Godwin. Ever since then, the Falcons have been playing with their food, dropping a game to the Saints and getting hammered by the Denver Broncos on Sunday by a score of 38-6. They enter their bye week with -410 NFC South odds, though they will have to face the Chargers, Commanders, and Vikings coming out of it, and two of those games are on the road. I trust Baker Mayfield and company to dominate their remaining soft schedule, which is why I want to get in on Tampa Bay's +400 NFC South odds. Those odds imply just a 20.0% probability while numberFire gives the Bucs a 27.9% chance to win the division. I love the value here and it should be a pretty entertaining race to track.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
Rank | Team | nERD | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
#12 | Denver Broncos | 4.31 | 70.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
#11 | Green Bay Packers | 4.89 | 84.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
#10 | Washington Commanders | 5.33 | 95.2% | 24.4% | 3.0% |
#9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.43 | 98.8% | 73.8% | 3.8% |
#8 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.76 | 100.0% | 91.0% | 15.4% |
#7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 6.52 | 96.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% |
#6 | San Francisco 49ers | 7.12 | 42.4% | 31.3% | 5.3% |
The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) topped the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) on Sunday by a score of 18-16. The Steelers have now won five straight games and tout -160 AFC North odds to Baltimore's +130 odds. The Ravens are at risk of missing out on postseason home field advantage, but you won't find me sounding the alarm on the NFL's top-ranked offense.
The Chiefs walked into Buffalo territory with a perfect 9-0 record, but Josh Allen didn't like the sound of that. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 despite missing Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid. Hopefully we won't have to wait until next season before seeing another installment of this Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen rivalry.
Following a troubling start to the year, the Eagles have -- somewhat quietly -- won six straight games. We're starting to grow fond of this defense once again, as the Birds check in with a seventh-ranked schedule-adjusted rush D and third-ranked pass D. We will see what the defense is made of in an upcoming Week 13 road date against the Ravens, but things are nonetheless looking up in Philadelphia. As much as I want to see the Lions in this year's Super Bowl, I don't hate the idea of backing Philly's +350 NFC Championship odds, particularly after seeing the defense prove limiting against the Commanders in Week 11.
The Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Saints, Jets, and New York Jets will all be on bye this week, but we've still got some pretty exciting games to look forward to this weekend. Cardinals at Seahawks, 49ers at Packers, and Ravens at Chargers are three of the top games to monitor in Week 12.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.