2024 Breeders' Cup: Who Will Be Horse of the Year?

The Eclipse Award picture is never clear until after the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, which will be run this year on Friday and Saturday, November 1 and 2 at Del Mar. With 2024 Breeders’ Cup races for all ages and divisions, horses who have entered major races on different circuits or schedules all year long finally clash to settle the score of who was the best horse in America over the course of their campaign.

The most prestigious of all the Eclipse Awards is Horse of the Year. And, Breeders’ Cup horses tend to dominate the discussion of who may earn that honor. After all, in the last decade, nine of the 10 Horse of the Year winners ran during Breeders’ Cup weekend.

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American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2016), Gun Runner (2017), Authentic (2020), Knicks Go (2021), and Flightline (2022) all contested the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with all of them winning except for California Chrome, who was second to Arrogate. Bricks and Mortar (2019) won the Breeders’ Cup Turf during his championship season, while Cody’s Wish swept his second straight Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. The only Horse of the Year during the last decade who did not compete in one of these championship races was Triple Crown winner Justify, who never raced again after winning the Belmont.

These are the frontrunners in the race for Horse of the Year:

Cogburn

He comes first in alphabetical order, though in reality, he is the dark horse of the group. After all, what are the odds that a turf sprint horse will be voted Horse of the Year? Then again, the prestige of the turf sprint division has been on the rise in recent years: more money, more Grade 1 races, a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint to make it something connections can focus on from the start if that’s where their horse’s talent lies, and not just fall into if all else fails.

Stormy Liberal landed a major blow for recognition of the turf sprint division when he earned champion turf male honors in 2018. Cogburn will probably match Stormy Liberal’s feat if he wins the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. After all, Cogburn has won all three of his races this year: the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), Jaipur Stakes (G1), and Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (G2), three of the premier races in the division. He ran the 5 ½-furlong Jaipur in less than a minute, a North American record time.

For the turf sprint division, Cogburn has run a top-class campaign. If the Steve Asmussen trainee can topple international stars like Bradsell, Believing, and Big Evs in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint? It’ll be among the most consistent top-level campaigns by any horse in any division. And, if there’s chaos in more traditional Horse of the Year sources like the Classic, the Distaff, or even the dirt mile? Why not Cogburn?

Fierceness

The Triple Crown season went poorly for Fierceness: he weakened to 15th in the Kentucky Derby after a poor start, and was ruled out of the Belmont Stakes a week and a half before the race. However, the champion 2-year-old male of 2024 not only romped in the Florida Derby (G1) before that star-crossed Triple Crown season, he came back with a vengeance at the Spa. He won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G1) by a length over Sierra Leone, and then won the Travers Stakes (G1) by a hard-fought head over Thorpedo Anna, handing her the only loss of her year so far.

In order to earn Horse of the Year, Fierceness will have to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It won’t be an easy task: the BC Classic never is, not to mention, Fierceness has yet to line up against older horses at all. However, if he shows up at Del Mar in the same form he brought to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile a year ago? He will not only sew up champion three-year-old honors, but a strong claim for Horse of the Year.

Idiomatic

The champion dirt mare of 2023, she was in the pre-entries to defend her crown in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2024. However, her chances for Horse of the Year diminished on Friday, October 25, when she was retired after some lameness in her knee.

Idiomatic may still repeat as the leading older dirt mare of 2024. She was never worse than second in five starts this year, and her three wins included victories in both the La Troienne Stakes (G1) and the Spinster Stakes (G1). Even in her losses, she missed by only a head to Randomized in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) and Raging Sea in the Personal Ensign (G1). Unless Raging Sea wins the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in impressive fashion, Idiomatic has probably done enough to win divisional honors, especially since her last race was such an emphatic romp. However, Idiomatic probably needed a dominant score in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to burnish any claims on Horse of the Year, and now she will not get the chance to do that.

Seize the Grey

Whether Seize the Grey can win Horse of the Year—or an Eclipse Award at all—depends not only on what happens in his own Breeders’ Cup race, the Dirt Mile, but also on others like the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Of course, it is not impossible for a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner to take Horse of the Year honors. Cody’s Wish did just that last year. However, his case was helped by a chaotic Classic division, a consistent campaign in the mile division, and perhaps even his deeply emotional story.

To his credit, Seize the Grey has come a long way since his first win of the year, a one-length score in a first-level allowance at Oaklawn. He looked sharp winning the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. He then surprised many observers when he stretched out two weeks later to win the Preakness. Just as it looked like he was cooling off, D. Wayne Lukas had him ready to win his last race before the Breeders’ Cup: he took down the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) in a 3 ¾-length procession. But, with a head-to-head loss to Fierceness in the Travers, Seize the Grey will need a sparkling victory in the Dirt Mile plus a disappointment from Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to make a strong claim for champion sophomore honors, much less Horse of the Year honors.

Thorpedo Anna

The perfect Horse of the Year résumé should feature consistency at the top level throughout a campaign. That’s the argument the aforementioned Cogburn has if he wins his Breeders’ Cup race … but, of course, Thorpedo Anna has this one in her corner, too, especially if she can topple older foes in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. And, she comes from a much more traditional place for finding a Horse of the Year.

Thorpedo Anna will be a heavy wagering favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff after the retirement of Idiomatic. Despite being a sophomore filly facing older for the first time, this makes sense given her record. She has won five of her six starts this year. Those wins all came in graded stakes, including some of the most important races in her division: the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn Stakes (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and Cotillion Stakes (G1). Her only loss this year came against males: she tried the classic 1 ¼-mile distance in the Travers, stared Eclipse Award winner Fierceness down in deep stretch, and only missed by a diminishing head.

No matter how the Breeders’ Cup Distaff goes, Thorpedo Anna should have champion three-year-old filly honors tied up with a neat little bow. If she wins Saturday at Del Mar, her consistency and class would give her the strongest argument of anyone for Horse of the Year—especially if Fierceness, the only horse to beat her this year, does not win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

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