2 Best WNBA First Basket Prop Bets for Friday 7/11/25

Over a 40-minute WNBA game, a lot can happen, but the action gets underway right at the opening tip-off.

And, although the first basket of the game is a small piece to the puzzle of the eventual winner, we can dig into usage and tip-off trends to examine the WNBA first basket markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

WNBA First Basket Picks and Props for Tonight

Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever

Brittney Griner (+600)

Starting off tonight's two-game WNBA slate is a game expected to be close between the Dream and the Fever.

Not expected to be as close is the opening tip-off with Brittney Griner jumping for the Dream. Griner's the top jumpball winner in my historical database and often gives Atlanta good chances at scoring first.

The Dream have scored first in 12 of 21 games, tying them for second-most first baskets in the WNBA.

Digging deeper, it's actually Griner who is showing value to score first for Atlanta at +600.

Indiana is slightly worse than average at defending the paint, and although Griner has scored first in a game just once this year, she's taken Atlanta's first shot in a team-high four games (tied with Allisha Gray and Brionna Jones).

The high field goal percentage for Griner (51.1%) paired with the defensive matchup and early-game trends point to value at +600.

Connecticut Sun at Seattle Storm

Erica Wheeler (+1200)

While I like to dig beyond the basic trends, it's worth pointing out that the Storm have scored first in a team-high 13 games so far this season and the Sun have done so just four times, a far cry from most of the rest of the league (only the Sky have also failed to score first in at least nine games).

With the tipoff model and shot frequency distributions plugged into my model, the biggest value for the nightcap is on Erica Wheeler at +1200.

Though Wheeler has taken the Storm's first shot in just one game this season, she's got a 20.4% usage rate and a 21.7% shot distribution when sharing the floor with the Storm's other projected starters for tonight.

Those rank her third among the starting five (and not by that much). Those numbers for Skylar Diggins are 25.8% and 25.3%, respectively; for Nneka Ogwumike, they're 24.0% and 24.2%, respectively.

The early-game shot attempts favor Ogwumike (nine first shots for the Storm) and Diggins (five) and Diggins rates out as an interesting option at +550 according to my model, too, yet Wheeler may be due for first-bucket regression based on the strong overall usage trends.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.