UFC Nashville Best Bets and Props: Lewis vs. Teixeira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira, taking place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on Saturday.

UFC Nashville Betting Picks

Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani

Matthews to Win (+124)
Matthews Wins Inside the Distance (+330)

This fight is an opportunity for Jake Matthews to push his win streak to three.

"The Celtic Kid" joined UFC at 18, so if my model is bullish on his career-long statistics, I take notice. He's really had a nice 4-3 run since the COVID break considering his losses have come to opponents a combined 19-6 with the promotion.

In this matchup, he'll almost certainly be looking to floor Chidi Njokuani, whose +2.06 striking success rate (SSR) still towers over Matthews' improving mark (+0.82). Njokuani is susceptible to that, though. He was controlled in a 2023 loss to Albert Duraev and has, since, fought four straight fighters averaging less than 1.00 takedown per 15 minutes. Jake (1.41) is the most well-rounded foe he's met at welterweight.

Matthews' pace could also be an obstacle for the 36-year-old Njokuani, who hasn't been pushed at 170 pounds. None of the three fighters topped 125 total strike attempts, a mark that Matthews has cleared in his last four fights where he didn't score an early finish.

I've got Matthews 55.4% likely to win Saturday's bout. The victory comes by knockout (19.1%) or submission (18.1%) a combined 37.2% of the time, leaving value on the ITD prop, too.

Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis

Griffin to Win (+240)

This was my most uncomfortable model result of the week.

I'm trusting its sentiment more than the exact number because my model doesn't adjust fully for weight class shifts like Chris Curtis is performing here. He'll drop to 170 pounds for the first time in UFC despite turning 38 next month. Though added relative strength could be an edge for him, what else could possibly go wrong there as a -310 favorite?

Max Griffin looked awful in his last fight in a completely different stylistic matchup. He was subbed for the first time as a pro by Michael Chiesa, who has a 63.2% submission rate in victory. Curtis hasn't attempted a takedown or submission in nine UFC appearances, though.

On the feet, "Action Man" Curtis is a talented boxer, but his -0.23 SSR shows an indisputable tendency to take his time to gather reads. That patience could be even more frustrating as he cuts weight -- and into his proverbial gas tank. Griffin (+0.09 SSR) is fighting in his organic weight class with, presumably, all of this fight's grappling upside.

I've got "Pain" Griffin, 39, as 54.6% likely to win this fight. I'd prefer to back him in a point spread market where possible with this fight -192 to go the distance, but there is value on the moneyline at FanDuel.

Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (+102)

A native of Clarksville, Tennessee should get the night's largest ovation in this one.

Nate Landwehr is a fan favorite everywhere, but it'll likely be a huge pop from the crowd in Music City. "Nate the Train" is a well-rounded MMA fighter with excellent striking volume (12.15 significant strike attempts per minute) and enough submission danger (0.8 attempts per 15) to wrap up the neck. War awaits with France's Morgan Charriere.

Just one of Charriere's 32 pro fights has ended with him getting finished (via submission), but he's also only fought in UFC four times. Frankly, we've still got a lot to learn about "The Last Pirate" when his strength of victory in UFC boasts just a 1-4 promotional record.

Charriere's knockdown rate (1.47%) is huge thus far, and Landwehr's chin is fading a bit as he's been dropped in two of his last five fights. However, I don't want to fade the hometown guy here from surviving an early onslaught to score another pro finish. 11 of Landwehr's 18 pro wins have come inside the distance.

I've got this fight 64.2% likely to end early. Even if it makes it the full distance, there will likely be several hairy moments in a violent affair, so plus money will be worth the sweat.

Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia

Garcia to Win (-128)
Garcia by KO/TKO (+210)

UFC has lined up an "is this guy for real?" fight in the featherweight rankings.

Calvin Kattar has dropped four in a row at 37 years old, but it's hard to say he's truly "lost" a step when all four fights have been inside the ranks, and he might have been overrated from the beginning as the record-holder for worst single-fight striking differential in UFC history (-312). That might stand forever.

Kattar's one attribute of note is a granite chin, though. "The Boston Finisher" yet to truly be knocked out in 32 pro fights with the one (T)KO on his resumé being a knee injury. That's where this matchup with Steve Garcia gets fun.

"Mean Machine" is riding a 5-0 streak with five knockouts since dropping to featherweight. All of them came inside the first 375 seconds. Garcia's unthinkable 3.07% knockdown rate has made his foe quit in every fight at 145.

Frankly, Kattar's increased age means I can't count on him to be durable, and he's coming off a decision loss exclusively in the striking realm to Youssef Zalal. I think he's knockout or bust in this fight, which would be his first since May 2020.

I've got Garcia 74.6% likely to win this fight, and it's by (T)KO 46.8% of the time. His gaudy power metrics are going to shine in any analytical model until someone survives it.

Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Bonfim by Submission (+160)

In his prime, Stephen Thompson's anti-grappling allowed his karate style to shine. It has completely vanished into his 40s.

Thompson has been floored 17 times in his last five fights, winning only once due to Kevin Holland's badly broken hand. UFC appears to be using him to build up top prospects as Shavkat Rakhmonov and Joaquin Buckley lept spots inside the top 15 following their defeats of "Wonderboy".

Here's Gabriel Bonfim as a -450 favorite to do the same. "Marretinha" is 5-1 with the promotion with his lone loss coming in an exhaustion-related loss to Nicolas Dalby in which he nearly found the first-round sub. Overall, Bonfim has submitted four of his six UFC foes.

If Wonderboy had shown better results in these same types of matchups, I'd be willing to consider he can hang on like Dalby did. Instead, Bonfim's wrestling (76% takedown accuracy) and grappling (2.2 submission attempts per 15) might be better individual skills than Shavkat or Buckley's. He just lacks the same striking talent.

I've got Bonfim 43.8% likely to get this fight to the ground and find yet another sub.

Unable to model Tallison Teixeira's sub-three minutes of octagon time so far, this co-main event is our last stop for official betting picks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.