2 Best WNBA Bets and Player Props for Mercury vs. Aces in Game 1

Even within a single WNBA game, we've got countless betting options.

You can ride with traditional markets such as spreads or totals or bet on which players will erupt via the player-prop markets.

Which bets stand out for tonight's matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces?

Let's run through the top options in FanDuel Sportsbook's WNBA betting odds, leaning on advanced stats from the WNBA to help us find an edge in the market.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

Mercury at Aces Game 1 Betting Picks

Aces Over 81.5 Points (-113)

The Aces will host the Mercury for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET. Vegas is favored by 2.5 points, and the total is up at 159.5 points. Both sides have already combined for three overtime games this postseason, and this Finals match seems primed to go off from the jump. I like the home team to outdo the market's scoring expectations.

Vegas famously ended the regular season on a 16-game winning streak. In that stretch, they held a wildly efficient 114.7 offensive rating and averaged 88.6 points per game. At home in the split? Vegas put up a 117.3 offensive rating and 90.0 points per game. It's been the same story these playoffs, as the Aces sport a playoff-best 108.9 offensive rating. They've exceeded 81.5 points in six of eight games.

Now, the market has rightfully adjusted for the new matchup. The Mercury might be the strongest defense the Aces will have seen this postseason. However, 81.5 points still feels like too low of a bar for A'ja Wilson and company at home.

Wilson averaged an even 25 points while her team scored 83-plus points in each of the three meetings against Phoenix in the regular season. The Mercury played at the third-fastest pace (95.81) and have pretty much maintained that tempo (95.26) in the playoffs. The nice part about getting the Aces' offense at home, though, is the contributions from players past Wilson. Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewel Loyd, and Dana Evans have gone a combined 32 for 73 from downtown (43.8% 3P%) at home this postseason. It's a common playoff trend, and the Mercury have let up the most three-point attempts to guards.

So, instead of taking either side or betting on an at-times flukey Phoenix offense to show up on the road, I'll take the Aces to score north of 81.5 points.

Chelsea Gray Over 1.5 Made Threes (+154)

Gray's not known for her three-point shooting, though she did average a career-high 3.9 3PA on a 36.8% percentage this season. At home, she was up to 4.5 3PA per game. I like her chances to notch a pair of made threes in Game 1.

Gray is averaging 1.9 made threes across 21 home playoff games since 2022. She drained at least two threes in 61.9% of those contests, but these +154 odds imply only a 39.4% probability.

She's gone 5 for 12 from distance across her last two games and has made two-plus trios in three of her last four home games. Add in a matchup against a Mercury group that is letting up the most 3PA to opposing guards, and Gray's a good bet to clear this prop.

You can also download our free 2025 WNBA playoffs printable bracket to follow along all postseason.

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Which bets stand out to you for tonight's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest WNBA betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.