2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Falcons at Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Falcons at Buccaneers Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Falcons Team Total Under 19.5 Points (-106)

My model has this game's total at 42.6 points with the Bucs favored by 4.5. That means I'm in line with the spread but showing value in the under.

I could take the full-game under 44.5. But with that sitting at -120, the better bet to me is the under on the Falcons' team total.

With Kirk Cousins starting, the Falcons clearly want to run the ball. Their early-down, first-half pass rate (when teams can operate the offense how they feel is best) is 44.8%, well below the league average of 53.6%.

I just don't know how effective that approach will be against a Bucs team that ranks sixth against the run, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

If they're forced to air it out, things could go sour, as well. Cousins ranks 40th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs.

The Falcons have gone over this team total in two of Cousins' starts, but one was against the New York Jets, and the other was indoors. To me, that makes this the best route for exploiting the slim value my model is showing on the under.

Buccaneers First Drive Result: Punt (+125)

For whatever reason, the Bucs have been terrible on the opening script this year. When you combine that with Todd Bowles' reluctance to go for it on fourth down, there's value in the Bucs punting on their opening drive.

Through 13 games, the Bucs have punted on their opening drive a whopping 8 times (61.5%). That's tied for the second highest mark in the league, trailing only the Cleveland Browns.

They are due for some regression as those opening drives have averaged 33.5 yards, which is firmly in the middle of the pack. But Bowles' conservative nature means that even a drive that gains yardage isn't guaranteed to lead to an aggressive call in plus territory.

This also does play well into the slim value I've got in the under but doesn't subject me to a full game for them to integrate Mike Evans into the offense. Maybe Evans' return helps right the ship, but there's enough evidence here to say this is an actual problem the Bucs will need to fix.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.