2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Broncos at Chargers on Thursday Night Football

Only three weeks of the regular season remain, and teams are vying to get into the postseason. That's exactly the case for the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers -- two AFC West rivals meeting on Thursday Night Football.

The 9-5 Broncos hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC, which is a one-game lead over the 8-6 Chargers -- who are currently the No. 7 seed. The Kansas City Chiefs already wrapped up the AFC West by winning their ninth consecutive divisional title. But Denver and Los Angeles are still battling to clinch postseason spots. A win for the Broncos would clinch a playoff berth, and the Bolts can clinch one by winning paired with the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts each losing or tying.

This is what primetime football is about. Two divisional foes with postseason dreams on the line; what more could you ask for?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Broncos at Chargers Betting Picks

Broncos +2.5 (-105)

In Week 6, the Chargers were 3.0-point favorites on the road against the Broncos and won 23-16. Thursday night's spread is suggesting a similar outcome with Los Angeles favored by 2.5 points at home.

Since the last meeting, Denver sports a 6-2 record while L.A. has gone 5-4 during the same span. Since Week 7, the Broncos are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) and the Bolts are 6-3 ATS. With that said, Denver is clearly a different team than they were the last time these two met.

That's reflected in our NFL power rankings as the Broncos rank 9th while the Chargers are 14th. Los Angeles' 40-17 loss in Week 15 was about as deflating as it gets; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers logged 506 total yards, 10.1 yards per passing attempt, and 5.7 yards per rushing attempt. Suddenly, a Chargers defense that lets up only 17.6 PPG (the fewest) and sports the ninth-best schedule-adjusted defense looks quite vulnerable.

The offense also has clear worries right now, scoring only 17.0 PPG over the last three (21.0 PPG this season). During that span, L.A. is averaging 5.0 yards per passing attempt and 3.5 yards per rushing attempt. For comparison, the Chargers record 7.4 yards per passing attempt (13th-most) and 4.1 yards per carry (8th-fewest) this season.

Don't expect this to dramatically turn around on Thursday night as Denver boasts the top adjusted defense. The unit gives up only 17.6 PPG (the fewest) and 4.8 yards per play (second-fewest). There are a few injury concerns here, though, as defensive tackles D.J. Jones (finger) and John Franklin-Myers (foot) could be absent and cornerback Riley Moss (knee) is also questionable. Fortunately, superstar cornerback Pat Surtain II (ankle) is trending toward playing after being a full participant in Monday's and Tuesday's practices.

Assuming Jones and Franklin-Myers cannot go, attacking the Broncos' rush defense will likely yield the most success for the Bolts. However, L.A. is already in the bottom 11 of major rushing categories, including yards per carry and yards per game. Plus, backup running back Gus Edwards has averaged -0.30 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C), per NFL Next Gen Stats, since J.K. Dobbins (knee) was put on injured reserve.

Simply put, I have little to no faith in the Chargers' offense right now, especially against the league's top defense. We also have some reason to believe Denver could put up more points than expected, but we will dig into that with our next pick. In short, Los Angeles' defense is going in the wrong direction, as mentioned.

numberFire's NFL projections have Denver winning 21.8-21.4 while MasseyRatings has the final at 21-20 in favor of the Chargers. Both projections point to a cover for the Broncos. A shot on the Broncos moneyline (+124) is also interesting with numberFire predicting an upset.

Broncos Over 20.5 Points (+102)

Now, it's time to dig into why Denver's offense could have success. Its team prop is set at only 20.5 points; we don't need that much for the over.

First, let's address the elephant in the room. Yes, Bo Nix stumbled a week ago by recording 3.9 yards per passing attempt, 130 passing yards, three interceptions, and -0.48 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db). However, he found success against the Chargers in Week 6, logging 216 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 0.08 EPA/db.

Baker Mayfield just erupted for 0.55 EPA/db against Los Angeles last week. Plus, Nix has performed quite well against zone coverage this season, and the Bolts have the ninth-highest zone coverage rate in the league.

The Broncos are in the bottom 10 of yards per rushing attempt and yards per passing attempt, yet they've put up 24.0 PPG (10th-most). They've done so -- in large part -- thanks to carrying the 16th-highest third-down conversion rate and 10th-highest red zone scoring rate.

Over the last four games, three opponents have surpassed a 50.0% third-down conversion rate against Los Angeles. It has allowed only a 37.0% conversion rate on the season (12th-lowest). This trend is certainly concerning against a good third-down offense. However, scoring in the red zone will still be tough for Denver as the Bolts give up a 40.0% red zone scoring percentage (the lowest). The Broncos still managed to score on both of their red zone trips in Week 6's head-to-head clash.

With confidence in Nix and Denver's ability to win on third downs and in the red zone, the over on the Broncos' team total looks very enticing. Going back to numberFire's projections, the Broncos sit at 21.8 points. If correct, this holds a 59.7% implied probability for Denver to reach 21 points. That's much better than the current +102 odds holding only a 49.5% implied probability.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.