2 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Heat at Bucks

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Miami Heat face the Milwaukee Bucks?

Let's dig into the Heats-Bucks best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Heat at Bucks Betting Picks

Heat +7 (-108)

Miami looks to be undervalued against Milwaukee tonight -- at least according to numberFire's NBA game projections. The numberFire model projects Milwaukee to win by fewer than 4 points tonight, showing value in the Heat +7. That's something I can get behind, even with Miami missing Jimmy Butler.

Though the Heat have suspended Butler for tonight's contest, this is hardly their first showing without him. Miami has played 17 games sans Butler this season, going 8-9 with a -1.9 net rating during that stretch. That's worse than their +3.0 net rating with Butler active but not demonstratively so. However, most of that impact comes on the offensive end; in fact, their defensive rating is actually better without Butler (111.7) than with him (114.7).

That would be a borderline top-10 mark in the league, and it's the driving factor in my confidence toward Miami tonight.

Now, Milwaukee has been playing good ball of late. They're 7-3 with the league's sixth-best net rating (+7.5) since the turn of the calendar, and they have the Association's top rebound rate (74.8%) during that stretch.

But Miami's 10th in total rebound rate over that same sample. That's coincided with rookie seven-footer Kel'el Ware getting more run -- something that's been good for the Heat as a whole.

Ware has the top individual net rating (+5.7) among Heat rotation players, and he's turned in consecutive 20-point, 2-block games coming into tonight. He's averaged 16.2 points and 10.8 rebounds across his last five games, including a 20-point, 15-rebound outing in his first career start on Tuesday night. Miami was +8 in Ware's 39 minutes last time out despite losing the game by 9 points. They were -19 in Butler's 27 minutes.

Ware's length should come in handy against Milwaukee's towering front line, especially given his +11 mark across just 9 minutes when these sides squared off in November. His insertion into the starting lineup bodes well for their chances of covering +7, making that side an intriguing value at -108 odds on FanDuel.

Tyler Herro to Score 25+ Points (+110)

Heat guard Tyler Herro has the team's top usage rate (28.8%) in games without Jimmy Butler this season, so this a spot we can look to target him to score 25+ points against a lackluster Milwaukee backcourt.

Herro is averaging 24 points per game on the year, and he's scored at least 25 points in 18-of-41 appearances. But he's hit that mark in 9-of-17 games sans Butler, averaging 24.9 points per game in such contests.

Though Herro sat out Miami's most recent game, he's probable tonight. With some extra rest under his belt, Herro should feast against a Bucks defense that's struggled to defend the perimeter.

Though Milwaukee is up to eighth in defensive rating, they've let up the third-most points to opposing point guards this season. They're bottom-10 in three-pointers allowed -- of which Herro attempts 9.6 per game. He only went for 18 points the first time Miami faced the Bucks but still led the team with 14 shot attempts across 40 minutes. The combo guard just happened to shoot an ugly 36% in that one.

I'd expect that to flip tonight, especially with how well he's played on the road. Across 21 road contests, Herro is averaging 26.0 points on 18.6 field goal attempts per game, compared that to his 22.4 points on 16.6 field goal attempts at home.

That puts him in a nice spot to reach for 25 points, and it correlates well with Miami. A Same Game Parlay featuring Heat +7 and Herro 25+ Points comes out to +192 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook (as of Thursday afternoon).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.