2 Best Cy Young Award Bets for the 2025 MLB Season

Opening Day of the 2025 MLB season is just days away, and we can try to get ahead of the curve before the first pitch.

Austan Kas laid out some of the best MLB future bets for 2025, and here, we'll focus in particular on the best bets to win the coveted Cy Young award.

Before we dive into our top picks, let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's AL and NL Cy Young odds to see who the favorites are this season.

2025 AL Cy Young Favorites

2025 NL Cy Young Favorites

2025 Cy Young Picks

AL Cy Young: Logan Gilbert (+1100)

Tarik Skubal won the 2024 AL Cy Young award in a unanimous vote after leading the American League in wins, wins above replacement (WAR), ERA, strikeouts, and just about every other advanced metric, including SIERA, xERA, and strikeout rate (K%).

A case isn't always as clear-cut as that one, but there are key historical benchmarks to keep in mind.

I wish I could say it's something deeper than ERA, though it hardly is. Seven of the last eight AL Cy Young winners led the league in ERA, and the lone outlier (Justin Verlander in 2019) ranked second.

Thus, we shouldn't consider someone who can't keep their ERA down, even if their strikeout numbers are otherworldly. Beyond ERA, the last eight AL Cy Young winners fared in the top 6 of K%, top 7 of WAR, and the top 10 of total strikeouts. In the last 15 years -- not accounting for the shortened 2020 season -- 13 winners had at least 13 wins, 205 strikeouts, and a 2.85 ERA or better.

Can Logan Gilbert meet the criteria this season?

The 27-year-old was nine strikeouts away from leading the entire MLB in that category in 2024. Among AL pitchers, he ranked ninth in ERA, third in strikeouts, and fourth in K%. His underlying numbers, however, suggest he is due for positive regression, which could help shave his ERA and catapult him into the Cy Young conversation.

Despite a 3.23 ERA, Gilbert held a 3.14 xERA (second-best in the AL), 3.11 xFIP (third-best), and a 3.19 SIERA (second-best). He also led the entire MLB with a 0.89 WHIP and dealt with an unlucky 12.9% HR/FB ratio.

We already know he can put up big strikeout numbers and his Seattle Mariners own a healthy-ish 85.5 win total for this year, meaning 13 wins are certainly in play for Gilbert. If his underlying numbers are any indication, he should see an improvement on his ERA this year, too.

Though he won just nine games and held a meh ERA in comparison to the other contenders, Gilbert placed sixth in AL Cy Young voting a season ago. An improved record and ERA could get him to the top.

Notably, no one in the AL has won a back-to-back Cy Young award since Pedro Martinez in 2000, which could draw us away from Skubal (+350). Garrett Crochet (+360) has the second-shortest odds in this market, but they are awfully short for a new lefty pitching at Fenway. Jacob deGrom (+1400) is another top contender, but his durability concerns might make him unreliable at this point in time.

With that, Gilbert is my favorite value bet to win the AL Cy Young award.

NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes (+1500)

I'm as terrified of Paul Skenes as the next person. The soon-to-be sophomore posted a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts through 133 innings pitched in his rookie campaign and undoubtedly deserves to be the odds-on favorite in the NL Cy Young market.

However, his +200 odds assume that little will go wrong in a 162-game MLB season. One injury or rough patch could mark the end of Skenes' Cy Young hopes and allows us to find true value elsewhere in this market.

Is Corbin Burnes in line to win his second Cy Young award?

Burnes is back in the National League after one season with the Baltimore Orioles -- this time with the Arizona Diamondbacks. I don't love that he'll be pitching in the NL West, though there's plenty of strikeouts to be had against the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants.

Burnes could use those soft matchups now and again after he saw his strikeout rate fall to 23.1% (29th) with the Orioles. Plus, he ranked 25th in swinging strike rate but just 37th in called strike rate, suggesting he was the victim of a bit of bad luck. Back in 2023, his swinging strike rate ranked 35th compared to a 12th-ranked called strike rate.

More than anything, I like Burnes because of his proven ERA track record. He's posted a 2.94 ERA or better in three of his last four seasons and is as durable as can be, making 125 starts in that span.

FanGraphs' ZiPS projections forecast Burnes to lead the NL in ERA (2.97) this season. They also project him to win an MLB-leading 14 games and rank third in WAR and eighth in strikeouts in the NL.

With durability and ERA historically on his side, Burnes is an intriguing Skenes-fade option at +1500 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.