2 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: Bengals at Ravens

The AFC North is firmly trending in the Baltimore Ravens' favor. Baltimore holds the shortest odds to win the division (-220) while the Cincinnati Bengals are far behind at +1000. However, this doesn't mean Thursday night's matchup lacks stakes.

The Ravens are behind the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Bengals are fighting to earn a postseason berth, currently owning -110 odds to make the playoffs. This could even have a big impact on the MVP race as Lamar Jackson is tied for the shortest odds to win the MVP award (+300) and Joe Burrow is a dark horse for the award thanks to his stellar play (+1600).

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Bengals at Ravens

Bengals +6.5 (-120)

Considering the Ravens have won three straight while going 3-0 against the spread (ATS) against the Bengals, we have to do some serious digging to back Cincinnati. Fortunately, the proof is in the pudding with this pick.

We can start with the negatives. There are obvious concerns surrounding the Stripes' defense, which ranks as the ninth-worst schedule-adjusted defense. Baltimore's offense is the cream of the crop, ranking second in adjusted offense while averaging 31.4 points per game (second-most) and 7.1 yards per play (the most). The Flock should find plenty of ways to score in this one, hence a 29.5-point total for Baltimore.

However, I have enough confidence in the Bengals' offense to come up with a cover. This is a high spread, and keeping it under seven points feels very obtainable. We could simply look at how Cincy has performed on the road, where it is 3-1 and 4-0 ATS.

Digging into the Bengals' offense, you have to like their chances with Burrow slinging the rock. He touts 0.12 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Along with the fifth-best mark in EPA/db, Burrow holds 2,244 passing yards (fifth-most) and 20 passing touchdowns (tied for second-most). Against the Ravens in Week 5, he logged 392 passing yards, five touchdowns, and 10.1 yards per passing attempt in route to Cincinnati's 38-point outing.

While the Ravens hold the 3rd-best adjusted run defense, the overall defense is 25th, and they check in 4th-worst in adjusted pass defense. Opponents are averaging 7.9 yards per passing attempt (fifth-most) and 280.9 passing yards per game (the most) against Baltimore. This goes right in hand with Burrow's hot streak as Cincy touts the sixth-highest pass-play rate across the NFL.

Our NFL DFS projections have Burrow totaling 283.5 passing yards. For reference, the highest projected total on Sunday's main slate is 264.5 passing yards.

Baltimore is around the middle of the league with the 15th-best mark in opponent red zone scoring rate. The Bengals are armed to take advantage of this weakness, with Cincy carrying the third-best red zone scoring percentage.

Cincinnati is permitting the sixth-fewest yards per rushing attempt and ninth-fewest yards per passing attempt, giving some hope to the susceptible defense. Pair this with the offense's promising matchup, and it pushes me to back the Bengals to cover on the road yet again.

Bengals +3.5 First Half Spread (-105)

Along with the hefty 6.5-point spread for the full game, the Ravens are favored by 3.5 points in the first half. Each team has had success covering first-half spreads as Baltimore carries a 5-3-1 first-half ATS record while Cincinnati is 5-4.

The Ravens have been up at halftime in four consecutive games. The last time Baltimore trailed at half? It was a 17-14 deficit against the Bengals earlier this season. With that said, Cincy hasn't trailed at half since Week 3. Week 2's 16-10 lead at half over the Kansas City Chiefs -- the only remaining undefeated squad -- adds even more confidence.

We've mentioned Cincinnati's chance of lighting it up through the air. The Ravens have also given up double-digit first-half point totals in four of their last five.

We could even narrow this sample size to just the Bengals' road games. Across those four contests, the Bengals have led at halftime by an average margin of +5.3 points. Taking Cincy to win the first half (+172) holds some appeal, but I'm hesitant to go that far with Baltimore leading at half in all four of their home games.

While the Bengals may not have enough to be leading at half, the first half spread is still very promising. Two great first-half teams are squaring off; I like the chances of this one being a bit of a stalemate by halftime. This pick also pairs well with Cincinnati to cover the 6.5-point spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.