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Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees

Over 8.5 (-114)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are making the World Series look easy after claiming a 3-0 lead over the New York Yankees last night. New York's back is against the wall even though they currently have -146 moneyline odds for tonight's Game 4. The Yanks don't look primed to have a Four Days in October-esque comeback story, and I see some value in the Dodgers' +124 odds to pull off the sweep.

However, my favorite way to bet this game is targeting over 8.5 runs. Pitching has totally ruled this series. Game 1 finished with nine runs in extra innings thanks to a Freddie Freeman grand slam. The next two games totaled just six runs a piece. I think the bats will finally come out strong in Game 4.

The Yankees are sending Luis Gil to the mound while the Dodgers will throw a bullpen game.

Gil started Game 4 of the ALCS, marking his only mound appearance in over one month. In that one, he tossed four innings and let up two runs. In the second half of the season, Gil produced a 4.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 4.90 xFIP, and allowed a .330 wOBA, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 1.64 home runs per nine innings. His strikeout numbers were also down across the board in this span. Considering his second-half downfall, lack of playoff experience, and the fact that he hasn't pitched in 11 days, I have doubts about him in a matchup against an unforgiving and deep Dodgers lineup.

The Yankees used seven pitchers past Clarke Schmidt last night, so the bullpen is by no means fresh.

Let's turn to LA's arms. Bullpen games aren't as treacherous as they may sound. It allows teams to handpick matchups and ride with pitching momentum when it's found. However, the Dodgers' bullpen has been put to work this postseason. Sure, they've had plenty of success, including a collective 3.89 ERA and 4.20 SIERA, but the Yankees' offense will be as aggressive as can be in an elimination game and the Dodgers utilized six throwers out of the pen last night.

At some point, the wear and tear is primed to get to the arms in this series. I'll take my chances that we see that in tonight's Game 4, one that's asking Gil to step up and the Dodgers' 'pen to be responsible for nine innings.

Max Muncy To Hit A Home Run (+470)

Max Muncy hit a pair of home runs in the NLCS but has been a ghost in the Fall Classic, going a combined 0-for-9 at the plate.

Can he finally make his mark on the World Series? He's in for a friendly matchup, so I'll back him to hit a long ball tonight.

In the regular-season, Muncy sported a .376 wOBA, .254 ISO, 52.8% fly-ball rate, and 145 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. The right-handed Gil, meanwhile, let up a 46.6% fly-ball rate and 1.29 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters this season.

Yankee Stadium is a homer-friendly park and high humidity will lend itself to warmer temps than perhaps expected on this late October night. I like Muncy to hit one out, but you can also get Muncy to record an RBI at +190 odds, which draws some intrigue given he bats fifth in LA's lineup.

Aaron Judge To Record An RBI (+110)

Aaron Judge's postseason play has been comically bad. He's gone 6-for-43 (.140 BA) at the plate and 1-for-12 in this series. The guy who managed a league-leading 58 home runs and 144 RBIs in the regular-season is all of a sudden shooting his team in the foot when they need him most.

Judge's reputation will be put to the test in tonight's elimination game. With +110 odds available, I like his chances to knock in a run.

Judge has walked to the plate with at least one runner on in 7 of his 13 at-bats this series. The leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres is a walk machine and opposing teams have shown little hesitancy in handing Juan Soto a bag, too. In turn, Judge is in an excellent spot to at least have an RBI opportunity in Game 4, he just needs to capitalize off of it.

The Dodgers will look to pitch around Soto and Giancarlo Stanton in this bullpen game, and the since-forgotten Judge is sandwiched between those two in the lineup. With that, he could draw a friendly matchup tonight, as he's not necessarily someone the Dodgers will be forced to make a pitching change around. Our MLB projections expect Judge to log a game-high 0.92 RBIs in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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